STARCHY wrote:
Lizard wrote:
Hank_in_Hancock wrote:[snip]
Of course, for some it's ALWAYS the right time to buy (and sell!) real estate.
Priceless!
Every time I hear "It's a great time to buy" I can only wince.
^^^^^ question for the market timers: if its not a great time to buy, is it a great time to sell ?
Interested to hear others chime in on this and disappointed that there hasn't been more of a response.
Okay, I'll bite. Quick answer, it's all a matter of an seller's individual situation, just as it's all a matter of a buyer's individual situation, right? 
It's a better time to sell now than it will be by the end of the year and the next few years. "Sell now or be priced in forever (or at least until the lender takes back the home)."
Long answer - there are a few caveats - this statement is in regards to the more desirable parts of LA/SoCal only, which is what most on this board are concerned with. It's not one of the greatest times to sell (that would have been 2005-2007), but it is a good time to sell (ASSUMING YOU CAN ACTUALLY GET A BITE/COMPLETED SALE...which considering the sales numbers the past couple of months, is extremely doubtful), for a few reasons.
Seller Pros:
First, in desirable parts there is still very little actual available inventory of anything resembling quality on the market - the few active buyers out there have very slim pickins'. So you don't have much in the way of competition if you're a seller, and from what I've seen, most of what's on the market is bottom barrel garbage, with insane asking prices. This is mainly courtesy of the trickle out of the shadow inventory by the banks/lenders. What little competition you have left at this point is also generally holding out for ludicrous prices...not enough desperate sellers out there slashing prices quickly until the market is found. Plenty of bogus distressed/short sales as well.
Second, rates are still low enough and mortgages are available that if you can find a sucker err I mean actual buyer that could actually qualify for a mortgage (still doesn't take much in the way of credit ratings/FICO scores), government/taxpayer backed loans are there for as little as 3.5% down up to $729K. These are the "new subprime" and "option ARM" loan. So lending is working in the seller's favor at present...as credit availability tightens, and there are already growing signs that this is happening and will be getting worse in the near future, this will whittle down the buyer pool. Less buyers = less transactions and lower prices. Supply and demand.
Third, if you are underwater and can get an approved short sale/debt forgiveness, particularly if you are underwater to the tune of $50,000 and up, then it's definitely a great time to sell, because at the end of the year, that forgiven debt may very well be taxed once again. Of course, it may still be taxed now depending on what the debt was used on, but that's another story. We know that there are many people underwater, as one third of mortgages in California are underwater. That's an enormous amount of homes. So it's not as if there are only a handful of these people out there...and this number is actually growing, because of the people that bought in 2009 and 2010 that are already underwater as the double dip ramps up.
Seller Cons:
There are plenty of things working against the seller right now, but those problems are building and.... Fewer and fewer available buyers on the market, and the ones that are remaining are generally much more savvy, much more informed, educated and knowledgeable as to the reality of the RE market both historically and at present, and have done enough investigation and research to know what sort of con game has taken place in real estate the past decade. I.e. the buyers that are remaining are made up of fewer and fewer suckers and fools.
Sales continue to tank and drop month over month, particularly at a time when they should be ramping up. Prices have been following, as well see the double dip in full effect once the tax credit market catalyst has worn off and we are following the trend we were originally on, that was interrupted in early to mid 2009.
Inventory is growing, not even including the shadow inventory that trickles out far slower than the incoming foreclosures and lender owned properties add to the numbers.
