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Regular Contributor
hibiscus
Posts: 120
Registered: ‎09-20-2012
0

Finally some sellers?

So in the markets I watch (Cap Hill and environs, QA, Wallingford, Greenlake) I'm suddently seeing varied listings. Prices are high, but it feels like real activity and it's only mid-February. Perhaps it is wishful thinking, and perhaps potential sellers are finally moving. Perhaps the recent price jump has sellers re-motivated. 

Regular Contributor
Tom_Tugboat
Posts: 62
Registered: ‎02-23-2010
0

Re: Finally some sellers?

No buyers.

 

I have a nice house in Everett for sale, 10 showings, zero interest.

Regular Contributor
etnu
Posts: 51
Registered: ‎05-13-2009
0

Re: Finally some sellers?

I'm seeing the same thing that I've seen all winter:

 

- People who bought houses from 2000-2010 trying to sell at 2007 prices, and staying on the market forever

- New construction priced appropriately being picked up before it even hits the market

- Older homes priced appropriately getting multiple offers.

 

There are slightly more listings now than there were a month ago, but not enough to call a trend.

Silver Contributor
ReallyEstate
Posts: 377
Registered: ‎03-05-2011
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Re: Finally some sellers?

There was an article in the Seattle Times not long ago with someone recommending that with the dearth of inventory, people might be better served listing now than waiting until the glut May.  I'm not sure if that's playing into things, but the lack of inventory likely doens't give a lot of advantage to waiting until peak season.

Regular Contributor
hibiscus
Posts: 120
Registered: ‎09-20-2012
0

Re: Finally some sellers?

I think that it what has suddenly changed, Etnu, that '07 buyers can finally sell without taking a bath (again, I am talking about these central city neighborhoods- I know things are different elsewehere.)

Regular Visitor
Plymster
Posts: 5
Registered: ‎01-08-2009
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Re: Finally some sellers?

Here's a high-level, rough explanation of what's been happening regarding much of the vanishing inventory lately:  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-14/boomerang-foreclosures-are-back-bernankes-second-housing-bu...

 

If you're buying, it seems that the best plan is to hunker down and wait a bit while the banks start to trickle out their inventory.

Regular Contributor
Cartab
Posts: 96
Registered: ‎12-16-2010

Re: Finally some sellers?

[ Edited ]

The problem with that, is the houses that go through the foreclosure process are by-in-large the kinds of homes that people don't want (needing lots of work), in locations where not many people want to live.     

Regular Visitor
Plymster
Posts: 5
Registered: ‎01-08-2009
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Re: Finally some sellers?

The problem with that, is the houses that go through the foreclosure process are by-in-large the kinds of homes that people don't want (needing lots of work), in locations where not many people want to live.

Yes, that's why the poverty-stricken, remote hellscape that is Kirkland has 19 foreclosed homes, more than half of which have been in foreclosed status (ie: off market) for over 90 days. There are currently 100 active listings (with prices from $250k to $4.28 million) in Kirkland. If these foreclosed homes were added to the active listings, that means ~16% of the active listings in Kirkland would be foreclosed. Of course, I'm not counting short sales and REOs currently on the market (though last I saw on SeattleBubble.com, these were ~16% and 9% of the total market in King County).

 

Admittedly, most foreclosures aren't in the multi-million dollar range, and some will require some cosmetic fixes, but it's a pretty broad statement to claim that they are the kind of homes that people don't want.  Perhaps it's just that people don't want to spend $500k on a 3 bedroom split-level that backs up to I-405; $250k for the same house might move some of these "unwanted" foreclosures.

Regular Contributor
Cartab
Posts: 96
Registered: ‎12-16-2010

Re: Finally some sellers?


Plymster wrote:
The problem with that, is the houses that go through the foreclosure process are by-in-large the kinds of homes that people don't want (needing lots of work), in locations where not many people want to live.

Yes, that's why the poverty-stricken, remote hellscape that is Kirkland has 19 foreclosed homes, more than half of which have been in foreclosed status (ie: off market) for over 90 days. There are currently 100 active listings (with prices from $250k to $4.28 million) in Kirkland. If these foreclosed homes were added to the active listings, that means ~16% of the active listings in Kirkland would be foreclosed. Of course, I'm not counting short sales and REOs currently on the market (though last I saw on SeattleBubble.com, these were ~16% and 9% of the total market in King County).

 

Admittedly, most foreclosures aren't in the multi-million dollar range, and some will require some cosmetic fixes, but it's a pretty broad statement to claim that they are the kind of homes that people don't want.  Perhaps it's just that people don't want to spend $500k on a 3 bedroom split-level that backs up to I-405; $250k for the same house might move some of these "unwanted" foreclosures.

 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Many buyers want turn-key homes.  We know this by the premium paid for the ones that come on the market.  Very nearly all foreclosures require remediation.  Cosmetic sounds cute and  inexpensive, but you'd be surprised how fast money disappears into the cosmetic void.  And the problems that arise in unnoccpied and unmonitored houses often go far beyond cosmetic.  Leaky roof, leaky pipe, drain backs up, hot water tank gives out, squater can move in, animals move in - all things that happen with surprising frequency and are not a big deal when detected quickly by an occupant   can result in destruction of floors, celings, walls, applicances and mold and bad smells.  THis is to say nothing of delayed routine maintenance.  This also does not include damages inflicted by departing residents.

 

Many buyers since 2009 have been counting on the shadow inventory to ride in and save them.  The $250,000 home in your hypothetical example will require $175,000 worth of  work, will be bought by an investor at auction and returned to the market "fully rennovated" at  $575,000.  This is happening all over and this is why the shadow inventory never seems to arrives; because it actually has, but it came to save a different group of buyers.

 

And yeah, sure, there are a handfull of foreclosures in Kirkland - but compare that with Kent, Auburn, or Spanaway, Everett, Marysville, etc., there are few by comparison.   

 

 

Regular Contributor
White_Lotus
Posts: 197
Registered: ‎03-18-2012

Re: Finally some sellers?

[ Edited ]

ReallyEstate wrote:

There was an article in the Seattle Times not long ago with someone recommending that with the dearth of inventory, people might be better served listing now than waiting until the glut May.  I'm not sure if that's playing into things, but the lack of inventory likely doens't give a lot of advantage to waiting until peak season.


I'm in S King County although I did look at homes in S Seattle. The "dearth of inventory" started early last year 2012 which coincided with the start of my home shopping (Jan 2012). My agents told me inventory would pick up in spring and summer, which it did but I did not expect things to be so competitive.

 

I don't think things have fundamentally changed all that much since May 2012. April/May 2012 is still very fresh in my memory banks, having gotten outbid on every house I wanted (due to bigger down payment) even though I was the high bidder twice. I never got the impression of a dearth of inventory and I think this merits some conversation.

 

"Inventory" is defined as the number of homes available on market that is expected to sell by X number of months. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but for King County total sales numbers for Spring were only down a little bit from 2011 to 2012 as someone here reported. That doesn't tell me there's a dearth of inventory. That tells me that the sellers are there (always have been), they just aren't taking months and months to sell.

 

There's a huge difference between inventory and sales. Inventory is what you keep in the back stock room. Sales is what you've moved. People are looking at inventory and getting the impression that there are fewer homes for sale when in reality homes are for indeed sale, they just aren't staying in inventory. When you see a 3BR rambler in Seattle go pending within 24 hours that home basically doesn't get included in the inventory because it's pretty much going straight from the seller to the buyer and isn't sitting in the "stock room" for a long time.

 

Having the knowledge that homes are flying off the shelf, gives me confidence that priced right, my home would be pending within days regardless of what time of year it is. I think people aren't willing to do what it takes to get the home. They have probably purchased homes in the past. Back in the day, you could go out and see a bunch of homes, take a few weeks to decide, and put your bid in.

 

In 2013, it's go to Redfin, find homes that just came on the market within the last 24 hours, look at the pictures, see the property yourself, call your agent, look inside, place your bid, all within the first day or two. If you have an agent that does e-signing, you could have your offer placed and signed within 20 minutes. This is completely different from the way real estate worked back in the 1980's when my parents bought their home.

 

I think it's taking some time for buyers to wake up and realize that they have to change their approach to buying a home. I also think it's taking some time for agents to wake up and realize that things have changed. The agents have to tell their buyers, "Hey! If you want that dream home in Greenlake, you have to find that home the second it comes on market and put your offer in ASAP!" I can say of the 5 agents I went through, most of them were not used to the rapid pace of real estate sales in 2012.