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Super Contributor
Pratt
Posts: 264
Registered: ‎12-11-2008
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2013 prediction?

Up, down or flat?

 

 

Silver Contributor
bld999
Posts: 474
Registered: ‎04-15-2011
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Re: 2013 prediction?

[ Edited ]

7% annual gain for 350k - 700k price band for north of the ship canal seattle, cap hill, queen anne.

If the really big builders shift from apartments to for sale, that number could decline quickly

 

I found this interesting:

http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2012/12/18/2013-how-rising-prices-could-boost-housing-demand/

 

"Rising prices could eventually encourage more sellers to put their homes on the market, which would help boost demand even further. Glenn Kelman, chief executive of Redfin, says he is looking to increase the company’s workforce of 400 agents nationally by 50% by the end of January. “I’m going across the country meeting with managers, and the only topic we’re talking about is hiring,” he said."

Redfin Partner Agent
MattVWjosiep
Posts: 255
Registered: ‎10-28-2008

Re: 2013 prediction?

Flat. 

 

We're still looking at 28% of homeowners with a mortgage being underwater by an average of $73,000. They will only hold on so long before deciding it isn't worth it anymore. We're also seeing a rise in the number of homeowners who are 30 and 60 days late on their mortgage, very few homeowners catch back up once they miss a mortgage payment. 

 

The number that always gets featured is the decline in the foreclosure filing rate. The missing link is that the number of homes that could be foreclosed isn't declining, the banks are just taking a lot longer to file for foreclosure so all these homes that ordinarily would have been foreclosed are still sitting in limbo. It used to be an average of 300 days between a missed payment and foreclosure, now it is 520 days. 

 

Yes, inventory is low which has brought prices up some, but there isn't the normal eligible inventory to come on the market because too many people owe more than their house is worth and can't sell. 

Matt van Winkle | Attorney | Redfin Partner Agent
Silver Contributor
ReallyEstate
Posts: 377
Registered: ‎03-05-2011
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Re: 2013 prediction?

[ Edited ]

I don't see any reason that things will change from the status quo.  Prices rise, not much inventory, few new apartment buildings or condos since developers are mostly clueless and the scourge of townhouses will continue as people with older poorly maintained houses are bought by the townhouse builders.  Were there any real Seattle like options outside of the city then things might be better, but everything else is pretty much suburbia.

Contributor
SeaB
Posts: 25
Registered: ‎03-21-2012
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Re: 2013 prediction?

[ Edited ]

Bidding wars will ensue.

Super Contributor
oddman
Posts: 308
Registered: ‎10-26-2009
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Re: 2013 prediction?

 

Economy,  mortage rates,  local jobs.

 

Supply matters but pull out any one of the three legs above and the stool will topple.

 

 


I think the market will remain the way it is right now. 

 

1 well to do areas and commuting zones  will do good.

 

2 The rest will struggle to even hold prices as buyers continue to fail to show up.

 

It is a tale of two markets.

 

 

 

Trusted Contributor
garyB
Posts: 114
Registered: ‎03-03-2009
0

Re: 2013 prediction?

Should be flat...Prices going up suggests there are greater fools.

Silver Regular Contributor
DWBowers
Posts: 639
Registered: ‎01-02-2008
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Re: 2013 prediction?

Prices near the city centers (Seattle, Bellevue) will continue to be in demand and increase in value.  Prices outside the city will start to increase but at a lower rate.

Super Contributor
Pratt
Posts: 264
Registered: ‎12-11-2008
0

Re: 2013 prediction?


We're still looking at 28% of homeowners with a mortgage being underwater by an average of $73,000. They will only hold on so long before deciding it isn't worth it anymore. We're also seeing a rise in the number of homeowners who are 30 and 60 days late on their mortgage, very few homeowners catch back up once they miss a mortgage payment.


Well, it seems it is more complex. There are lot of programs for underwater home owners, that seems to allow them to refinance to current interest rates despite negative equity. So home owners will have a way to reduce thier payments.

 

For existing people underwater, the rising prices and lower interest rates with oppurtunities to refi might be enough motivation to stay put.

Gold Super Contributor
Jil
Posts: 3,174
Registered: ‎10-24-2011
0

Re: 2013 prediction?

[ Edited ]

MattVW wrote:

Flat. 

 

We're still looking at 28% of homeowners with a mortgage being underwater by an average of $73,000. They will only hold on so long before deciding it isn't worth it anymore. We're also seeing a rise in the number of homeowners who are 30 and 60 days late on their mortgage, very few homeowners catch back up once they miss a mortgage payment. 

 

The number that always gets featured is the decline in the foreclosure filing rate. The missing link is that the number of homes that could be foreclosed isn't declining, the banks are just taking a lot longer to file for foreclosure so all these homes that ordinarily would have been foreclosed are still sitting in limbo. It used to be an average of 300 days between a missed payment and foreclosure, now it is 520 days. 

 

Yes, inventory is low which has brought prices up some, but there isn't the normal eligible inventory to come on the market because too many people owe more than their house is worth and can't sell. 


Is this local seattle 300 days to 520 days or all over USA? I hope you are aware of MERS issue...Is this delay related to MERS?

What is the situation of short sale in seattle, reduced or increased?

 

I am from BayArea/SFO/SJC. 

We discussed similar topic - local to bay area - here

http://forums.redfin.com/t5/Bay-Area/2013-Bay-Area-Trend-Predictions/td-p/386556