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Yoyoyah1
Posts: 2
Registered: 01-31-2012
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why is housing inventory shrinking so fast...

[ Edited ]

Looking at San Diego County.. the graph at the bottom shows that we are at a two year low in inventory (at least 30% decline).   Sales don't look to be improving ... so what's happening

 

http://www.redfin.com/county/339/CA/San-Diego-County

 

 

This is also happening in LA & Orange County

 

http://www.redfin.com/county/332/CA/Orange-County

 

http://www.redfin.com/county/321/CA/Los-Angeles-County

 

Is this a redfin problem or do we really have 3 months of supply at current sales rates?

RRW
Contributor
RRW
Posts: 25
Registered: 12-27-2011

Re: why is housing inventory shrinking so fast...

Well..I believe this is a calculated move as far as short sales and foreclosures go.

1) Banks that hold the mortgages in the same location do not want to flood the market with REO's because this will drive down sales prices and burst our little bubble here in Southern Cali a little more.

2) Because of this the banks allow people to sit in the homes without paying the mortgage longer and longer...

3) The federal government has launched several programs that actually give people money to pay their mortgage! Look up the recent SD Union Tribune article. They interviewed several people getting money to pay their mortgage..one of them was getting over $1,800.00 a month!! This results in less people listing their homes for sale when they can no longer afford it themselves.

4) Banks are reducing principal mortgage amounts and obtain subsidizes from uncle same to try to hold off the inevitable.

 

Traditional sellers are trying to wait out the dip if they can and don't want to sell their homes at a loss. Most have refi'd themselves into oblivion so even if they bought there house at current market rate they took so much cash out during the height of the market they would have to bring funds into close.

 

It is frustrating for a new homebuyer...I have made several offers always full price or over asking, immaculate credit ect..ect but I am always outbid due to lack of supply or the house goes into an MLS abyss..only to resurface 6 months later in the same condition..One would think it was a sellers market..No..it is just a trickle down affect by the powers that be!

 

Trusted Contributor
dansup
Posts: 139
Registered: 11-10-2009
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Re: why is housing inventory shrinking so fast...

My daughter and son in law are going to be entering the home buying market within the next year - they were hoping some of these games would be over by now - it's discouraging when you want to get on with your life, start a family, and set roots - so much nonsense getting in your way, I wish all responsible buyers luck in this mess of a market.

Visitor
Yoyoyah1
Posts: 2
Registered: 01-31-2012
0

Re: why is housing inventory shrinking so fast...

[ Edited ]

I am not totally buying market manipulation for being -30% below the two year minimum point.    We should soon find out  once summer selling season hits.....

 

Here are some more data points from the Stock Market:

 

Home Depot is up 35% since the end of September.  

XHB - home builders ETF - up 40% since end of September.

Whirlpool up 14% today on good North American Sales.

 

The S&P 500 up 15% in same time frame, so it appears that housing related stocks are outperforming the broader market.

 

The market is pricing in a rebound in these housing dependant names for some reason, inventory has been falling at a steeper rate since Sept....it seems to correlate.

 

Regular Visitor
RF4Fun
Posts: 5
Registered: 06-29-2011
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Re: why is housing inventory shrinking so fast...

my guess: seasonal data but this is only "visible" inventory, the real question is how big is the "shadow" inventory.

 

 

Regular Visitor
pbs1
Posts: 2
Registered: 03-01-2012
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Re: why is housing inventory shrinking so fast...

you can pretty much see the shadow inventory on redfin. choose homes and foreclosed homes, and turn off all the other filters like the price to the default.

 

Visitor
SDPA
Posts: 4
Registered: 03-10-2012
0

Re: why is housing inventory shrinking so fast...

I've noticed the same thing. A couple of months ago in my area I had lots of houses in my price range. Now all of them are pending with 3 to even 6 backup offers and nothing else has come on the market since. The economy has not gotten any better and prices on everything are going up due to gas prices. Something fishy is up.

Regular Visitor
fslarry
Posts: 8
Registered: 06-19-2010
0

Re: why is housing inventory shrinking so fast...

Just curious, what make you think the economy isn't getting any better?

Visitor
SDPA
Posts: 4
Registered: 03-10-2012
0

Re: why is housing inventory shrinking so fast...

Very few quality jobs (mac jobs don't count) are available and the price of gas is getting higher by the day. I have not gotten a cost of living raise in 2 years and my job is planing to cut our pay this year by 8 to 10%. Where I sit, the economy is horrible.   

Regular Visitor
fslarry
Posts: 8
Registered: 06-19-2010
0

Re: why is housing inventory shrinking so fast...

I was out previewing homes today in North SD County.  I'm a Real Estate Broker.  Almost every home I visited was presently being shown.  I think people are ready to buy.  Of course they still have to qualify and the homes have to appraise at value.  But, there is activity.