Orange County

[Groundhog]

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BobPhillips-RE wrote:

Groundhog, you're still wrong, my friend.

Your first link is over 11 months old, and many of those parents who took their kids back in - myself included - got them back out on their own as quickly as we could - myself still included.  I'm also speaking from an obviously limited, but local standpoint - no National viewpoint did I express.

As for the other link, it had nothing to do with housing, whatsoever.  It was about attitudes toward saving for retirement.  What it neglects to mention is that Boomers - like myself - had a similar attitude when WE were younger, also - it's kind of natural.  When you grow up, and learn other ways to plan for your retirement, your attitudes frequently change - I know mine did.

When I had a REAL job - 35+ years ago, I too invested in the company's shares as part of my retirement plan.  When I decided on a career in real estate, those plans had to change - and did.  I just learned to focus on a different path to get where I wanted to be.

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Groundhog sez,

Wrong again you are, Bob old pal. But alas, 'tis as expected.

You have apparently missed the entire point for some reason? That first link remains as relevant today as it was when written. That article's position is directly reinforced by the other link, which is less than 3 months old. Excerpted here is one comment from that other link, which speaks directly to the housing issue. NOT just saving for retirement as you claim.

Dated 12/23/11..............."Twenty-somethings “are returning home to live with parents post-college in record numbers,” pointed out Doreen Dodgen-Magee, a licensed psychologist and Gen Y expert.  “In many ways this alone provides them with greater amounts of income to put toward retirement than others who went before them; paying off mortgages, covering rent, buying food, etc.”

What's more, there is professional hard data in these links. Not just opinions.

You have no data.

Groundhog opinion,

OGR

[BobPhillips-RE]

Groundhog?  There wasn't ONE iota of DATA in either of your links - they were both frought with OPINIONS, not facts.

The quote you provided was just an opinion - there was no supporting data.

In the first outdated article - 11 months old and citing "opinions from 2009 - there were 2 surveys mentioned - neither one had anything to do with housing.  Here's where they were referenced:  

"A 2010 Pew Research survey found that 52 percent of Millennials say being a good parent is "one of the most important things" in life, while just 30 percent say the same about having a successful marriage. 

Gen Y is isolationist. The Brookings Institution recently surveyed more than 1,000 young leaders about their views on foreign policy."

That's it.  NOTHING in the way of housing data - which is what THIS thread is supposed to be about.

[Groundhog]

Bob said.........That's it.  NOTHING in the way of housing data - which is what THIS thread is supposed to be about.

Groundhog sez,

Me thinks The Realtor doth protest overly much, AS USUAL.

THE ORIGINAL question of this thread is simply WHY IS THE RE MARKET BEHAVING SO STRANGELY the past two months, is it not?

IN ATTEMPTING TO ANSWER THAT QUESTION FOR THE THINKING MIND........The links provided present a logical and very credible POSSIBLE reason as to why the market is behaving so strangely.

MY PREMISE being that kids are staying home and moving back home, plus oldsters who are underwater and out of money does not a good RE market make

Admittedly, such a postulate is perhaps a bit too indirect for you to follow. For it does require some hypothetical reasoning be applied to the premise, (and weeding out of the non-related stuff in the links after all).

You do not provide ANY data in support of the Gen Y and Gen X  groups actually achieving even a relative modicum of successful home ownership in OC. Surely some of them, even if only a small minority, must be able to buy a home  in OC ?

Do you have any data at all?  

Groundhog opinion

OGR

[BobPhillips-RE]

Here's the FIRST post of this thread.

"Trendgraphix just released their data today

In February, 2012  homes for sale in the OC have been the lowest they have been in the last 15 months at 7,247 and pending sales have never been higher  3,765.  Closed sales posted the 2nd worst performance in February 2012 at 1,880.  The worst performance was January, 2012 at 1,740.

Very interesting, wish I knew what it all means."

Your DIRECT response to that, in the 4th post in the thread, was to launch into your OPINION ( Supported, supposedly, by a survey by Pew, which had NOTHING to do with the original post, other than to back up your OPINION.)  that there is some some of disparity between the youths of today, vs. their parents.

When I chose to call you on the irrelevance - in MY opinion - of YOUR opinion, you've spent the better part of the last page and a half, trying to assert your opinion as relevant.  You haven't contributed any data, just a myriad of disjointed opinions, and yet you ask ME, to "show you the data" to disprove your opinion.

To which I respond:  "Refer back to post number one".

You have your opinion, and I have mine. ( Which you referred to as "hogwash".)  Since then, there's been a lot of give and take.

Let's try to get BACK to the original concept here, my old friend.

[Groundhog]

Heya Bob,

Nice graphic, very good deflection tactic.

But I still want some data with my porridge and tea from that pot & kettle !

My question remains accordingly........How many Gen Y & Gen X are closing on home deals these days, huh?

If anybody knows this data, it should be you, do you perhaps have this information and just won't share?

Is it some deep dark NAR/CAR secret...............Why are you evading?

Inquiring groundhogs want to know.........What is really going on in this RE market with the young people, any hope there?

BTW, I am glad you have your opinions. They provide much insight on many topics, and sometimes I even learn something.

Groundhog opinion,

OGR

[Strom]

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BobPhillips-RE wrote:

It's pretty obvious that a LOT of houses are going to close escrow over the next couple of months - pretty much what I've been saying since January 15th.

When that starts to become obvious, a lot of pent-up sellers will start putting their houses on the market - just in time to be too late, probably.

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What will they be too late for?

[BobPhillips-RE]

Strom asked: "What will they be too late for?"

A lot of sellers wait until too late in the local real estate "best" selling season ( Usually between Feb. 1 and Aug. 1.) before putting their houses on the market, like in late summer, when the majority of that year's buyers have already bought.

[Strom]

But if prices have hit bottom, it doesn't seem that should matter too much...

[RE_Guy]

Home Sales in the OC Jan-Dec 2011

Jan   1,765

Feb  1,701

Mar  2,325

Apr   2,265

May  2,548

June  2,558

July  2,245

Aug  2,497

Sept  2,308

Oct   2,129

Nov  2,028

Dec  2,271

Source - Trendgraphix

Of course, all this is just my opinion.

[BobPhillips-RE]

"But if prices have hit bottom, it doesn't seem that should matter too much..."

You're not paying attention.  There's a difference between being a buyer, and being a seller.

In the initial half of the year, ( More accurately, between Feb. 1st, and Aug. 1st.) there are more buyers out there, competing for fewer houses, which tends to create firmer prices, followed by a nudge upward, of prices.

When the number of home sales slows down, as it usually does in the last 3rd of any given year, the pendulum swings from being better for buyers, than sellers.  That's why, for a buyer, the BEST time of the year to actually be out looking, and making offers, is during the last 3 months of the year.  There are fewer buyers out there competing with you, and that makes sellers more anxious, and therefore, more negotiable.