Orange County

[RE_Guy]

Trendgraphix just released their data today

In February, 2012  homes for sale in the OC have been the lowest they have been in the last 15 months at 7,247 and pending sales have never been higher  3,765.  Closed sales posted the 2nd worst performance in February 2012 at 1,880.  The worst performance was January, 2012 at 1,740.

Very interesting, wish I knew what it all means.

Of course, all this is just my opinion.

[Groundhog]

Thanks RE-Guy,

Good information to know, thought provoking even.

Groundhog opinion

OGR

[BobPhillips-RE]

It's pretty obvious that a LOT of houses are going to close escrow over the next couple of months - pretty much what I've been saying since January 15th.

When that starts to become obvious, a lot of pent-up sellers will start putting their houses on the market - just in time to be too late, probably.

[Groundhog]

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RE_Guy wrote:

Trendgraphix just released their data today

In February, 2012  homes for sale in the OC have been the lowest they have been in the last 15 months at 7,247 and pending sales have never been higher  3,765.  Closed sales posted the 2nd worst performance in February 2012 at 1,880.  The worst performance was January, 2012 at 1,740.

Very interesting, wish I knew what it all means.

Of course, all this is just my opinion.

---

Heya RE-Guy..........Groundhog sez,

Here is a review of a PEW report on wealth of the aged vs. youth.

http://blogs.smartmoney.com/encore/2012/03/06/the-old-get-richer-the-young-get-poorer/

Perhaps this "new" demographic has something to do with it, ya think?

It will be a long, long time before the economic opportunities we older folks were able to take advantage of since our youth again become available. Those kind of economic cylces take decades to evolve.

IMHO, that is the bottom line for the housing mess.

THE YOUNG FOLKS WHO NEED A HOME JUST PLAIN CAN'T AFFORD ONE, ESPECIALLY IN OC. AND THE FOGIES WHO ALREADY OWN A HOME (many free & clear, BTW),  DON'T NEED A NEW ONE, SO THEY WON'T SELL ACCORDINGLY.

SOOOOO......HOW YA GONNA SELL HOUSES IN THE MIDDLE OF SUCH A DEEPLY ENTRENCHED ECONOMIC MESS..........AHA!

Groundhog opinion

OGR

[TrabucoDom]

---

RE_Guy wrote:

Trendgraphix just released their data today

In February, 2012  homes for sale in the OC have been the lowest they have been in the last 15 months at 7,247 and pending sales have never been higher  3,765.  Closed sales posted the 2nd worst performance in February 2012 at 1,880.  The worst performance was January, 2012 at 1,740.

Very interesting, wish I knew what it all means.

Of course, all this is just my opinion.

---

Those are very interesting stats...lots of pending sales but few closed sales....are the buyers backing out or are they being strung along? If many are being strung along then they should eventually close and the stats will look better soon....

but I think the reality is probably that some buyers are desperate to buy but the pickings are slim...they get an offer accepted on some marginal house and they back out either because they realize their offer was an emotional decision and it really isn't what they want...or they get strung along by a short-sale or REO on a marginal house and during that time they figure out it isn't worth it or get nervous about the economy and then back out.

[TrabucoDom]

---

Groundhog wrote:

Here is a review of a PEW report on wealth of the aged vs. youth.

http://blogs.smartmoney.com/encore/2012/03/06/the-old-get-richer-the-young-get-poorer/

Perhaps this "new" demographic has something to do with it, ya think?

It will be a long, long time before the economic opportunities we older folks were able to take advantage of since our youth again become available. Those kind of economic cylces take decades to evolve.

IMHO, that is the bottom line for the housing mess.

THE YOUNG FOLKS WHO NEED A HOME JUST PLAIN CAN'T AFFORD ONE, ESPECIALLY IN OC. AND THE FOGIES WHO ALREADY OWN A HOME (many free & clear, BTW),  DON'T NEED A NEW ONE, SO THEY WON'T SELL ACCORDINGLY.

SOOOOO......HOW YA GONNA SELL HOUSES IN THE MIDDLE OF SUCH A DEEPLY ENTRENCHED ECONOMIC MESS..........AHA!

Groundhog opinion

OGR

---

Those are interesting stats in that article, groundhog....

I think it has pretty much been that way through much of our history  that the wealth is concentrated with the older generations....after all, most of them have been producing and saving much longer...I think that the wealth gap is exaggerated now that people are living so much longer...as you know, invested money compounds and you get the biggest increases of compounding in the later years. 

But if the young are desperate to get the money from the older generations without working for it, they can be satisfied that nobody lives forever...so the money will pass via inheritance...(on the down side for the youngsters, when someone who is 85 dies, their little kids who are now in their 60's will get the wealth...hahaha

[BobPhillips-RE]

Groundhog speculated:  THE YOUNG FOLKS WHO NEED A HOME JUST PLAIN CAN'T AFFORD ONE, ESPECIALLY IN OC. AND THE FOGIES WHO ALREADY OWN A HOME (many free & clear, BTW),  DON'T NEED A NEW ONE, SO THEY WON'T SELL ACCORDINGLY."

Wrong again, old-timer.  A LOT of parents are HELPING their kids buy homes in today's market, either by loaning/giving them the down payment money, co-signing with them, or some other means of being helpful, including doing an equity share arrangement.  And yes, over the next 5-10-20 years there will definitely BE some equity to share, just as there usually was before this past anomaly of a decade.

[Groundhog]

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BobPhillips-RE wrote:

Groundhog speculated:  THE YOUNG FOLKS WHO NEED A HOME JUST PLAIN CAN'T AFFORD ONE, ESPECIALLY IN OC. AND THE FOGIES WHO ALREADY OWN A HOME (many free & clear, BTW),  DON'T NEED A NEW ONE, SO THEY WON'T SELL ACCORDINGLY."

Wrong again, old-timer.  A LOT of parents are HELPING their kids buy homes in today's market, either by loaning/giving them the down payment money, co-signing with them, or some other means of being helpful, including doing an equity share arrangement.  And yes, over the next 5-10-20 years there will definitely BE some equity to share, just as there usually was before this past anomaly of a decade.

---

Groundhog sez.......

HOGWASH...........Ground hog wash even!

Bob has no statistical supporting data for pie in the sky opinion.

It is common knowledge that many Gen Y and even Gen X are now staying with Mom & Pop so as to afford a life and save up some bank.

The attached Huffington Post article claims only 10% - 15% of Gen Y (early 30 something's) are getting financial assistance in buying housing from Mom & Pop. It drops off from there.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/delia-lloyd/millennial-generation_b_836931.html

The Great Recession caused hugh losses to parent Boomers. The effects of this economic chaos has been influencing the younger set. They are not only staying home or moving back home, they are out-investing their parental units, thereby attempting to exceed parental wealth and provide security in their own life.

The Boomer parents you speak of as helping so many to buy are no doubt all wealthy families living in COTO, I am sure. 

Only 47% of Boomers are sure they have enough bank, or will ever be able to retire someday. This article from MSN Money describes pretty well what is going on.

http://lifeinc.today.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/23/9634352-gen-y-out-investing-gen-x-boomers

BTW, I got a kick out of Lansner today in the OC Register. He did a bit on current Apple stock values in which he stated that if one had invested the price of an OC home in 2002 ($228K), in Apple stock at $7/share, then that investor would now have $10 million cash instead of owning a white elephant of a home, stuck in a flat market.   

Food for thought..........stay sage and safe "at home" with Mom & Pop, and build some real bank, or buy a home and risk losing your hinney while not building any real bank.........IT'S A NO BRAINER, as the kids say these days.

Groundhog opinion

OGR

[BobPhillips-RE]

Groundhog, you're still wrong, my friend.

Your first link is over 11 months old, and many of those parents who took their kids back in - myself included - got them back out on their own as quickly as we could - myself still included.  I'm also speaking from an obviously limited, but local standpoint - no National viewpoint did I express.

As for the other link, it had nothing to do with housing, whatsoever.  It was about attitudes toward saving for retirement.  What it neglects to mention is that Boomers - like myself - had a similar attitude when WE were younger, also - it's kind of natural.  When you grow up, and learn other ways to plan for your retirement, your attitudes frequently change - I know mine did.

When I had a REAL job - 35+ years ago, I too invested in the company's shares as part of my retirement plan.  When I decided on a career in real estate, those plans had to change - and did.  I just learned to focus on a different path to get where I wanted to be.

[TrabucoDom]

This isn't  a good sign:

OC Jobless Rate Rose to 8% in January

http://www.ocbj.com/news/2012/mar/09/oc-jobless-rate-rose-8-january/

By JANE YU

Friday, March 9, 2012

The unemployment rate ticked up in January as Orange County cut 29,700 jobs across all industries.

Last month’s decline follows four consecutive monthly declines in the local jobless rate. The rate hit 8% in January, up from 7.8% in December but below the year-ago estimate of 9.2%, according to the state Employment Development Department.

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.

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California’s overall unemployment rate in January was 11.3%, up from 10.9% in December, and below the 12.7% a year ago.

Nationwide joblessness was 8.8%, up from December’s 8.3% and below a year-earlier estimate of 9.8%.

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...but at least better than year-ago numbers.