Orange County

[Strom]

Well, if I were a Seller or a Buyer (I am neither at this time), I would only care about price. Not how many other people out there are looking for houses, or how many people are bidding on the same house as me or bidding on the house I am selling.

I understand that supply and demand drive price...

You have made the argument in other places that prices have hit bottom, and I am not disputing that - I have no idea where prices are going.

I am just trying to understand that if prices are not going to decline in the second half of the year (say, starting in August), then why would a seller worry about putting their house on the market at the "right time"? They won't have "missed" anything in terms of pricing.

[BobPhillips-RE]

Strom queried:  "I am just trying to understand that if prices are not going to decline in the second half of the year (say, starting in August), then why would a seller worry about putting their house on the market at the "right time"

My earlier statement would suggest - based on 35+ years experience in this area - that in most of those years, because there are typically fewer buyers in the Fall/Winter/Holidays, prices tend to drift downward, from Sept. through mid January.

The reverse is usually true, meaning that prices firm up, and actually tend to nudge up, from mid-January, through July/August, because more buyers are competing for available listings.  

Consequently, in my humble opinion, sellers are USUALLY better off putting their houses on the market about midway through the early to mid year "buying" season, while buyers are better off making their purchases late in the year.

Obviously the two separate best time scenarios rarely coincide.

[Strom]

We're talking about what - 1-2% here?

Also,considering that the "average" seller is probably buying at the same time that they are selling (i.e. - moving up or just moving), they would benefit from the softness in buying their next house, so it seems that it would net out to be even.

[BobPhillips-RE]

Which is why I said: "Obviously the two separate best time scenarios rarely coincide."

As you noticed, though, it doesn't usually amount to a big difference - rarely more than a 2-4% total swing from the seller's high price in July, to the buyer's low price in December.

I will add, though, that in the past 4 or 5 years, close to 50% of "sellers" weren't buying up - they were being forcefully removed from their homes, either by short sale, or foreclosure.  

At least now we should start to see more of the "average" scenario, as you called it.