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Gold Contributor
BobPhillips-RE
Posts: 1,701
Registered: ‎12-13-2010
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The local market saw no seasonal slowdown this year

People who have read my postings over the past few years know that I tend to suggest - based on my 36+ years of local experience - that Orange County has a number of "typical" seasons for its real estate market.

 

The busiest buying season "usually" starts around February 1st, ( In 2012 it started early, in mid-January, if not sooner.) end starts to poop out come August/September, and REALLY slows down for the Holidays, starting as early as Halloween.

 

Not last year. There was only a small - barely detectable - slowdown, last fall, and into today.

 

http://www.housingwire.com/fastnews/2013/01/25/housing-market-saw-no-seasonal-slowdown-2012

 

 As of right now, the market has picked up already, and good listings are selling quickly.  

 

If you're a potential buyer, you NEED a good experienced agent, to help you secure a good buy, before prices start creeping up, like they did last year.

 

If you're a potential seller, you ALSO need a good, local, experienced agent, to help make sure you don't price your home too low.  It's better - for sellers - to start a little high and take 3-4 weeks to sell, than to start too low, and sell in hours.

 

If you're planning to both sell and buy, you REALLY need an experienced agent to help you navigate the complexities of a double transaction.

 

Good luck to everyone, buyers and sellers alike - it's going to be an interesting year!

All this, of course, is merely MY opinion. Thanks for reading.

Bob Phillips - Realty ONE Group - South Orange County, CA
Regular Contributor
irvinehomeowner
Posts: 67
Registered: ‎11-16-2010

Re: The local market saw no seasonal slowdown this year

Isn't this more related to lack of inventory?

 

Like sales, inventory numbers are seasonal and I believe the last year and a half, the inventory has not gone through its normal cycles. Instead of rising with busy sales seasons, hasn't it been mostly on a decreasing trend?

3CWG
Regular Contributor
SunshineTax
Posts: 94
Registered: ‎01-14-2013

Re: The local market saw no seasonal slowdown this year

I agree with irvinehomeowners point. 

Redfin Open Book Certified
LoansbyJW
Posts: 3,198
Registered: ‎04-30-2009

Re: The local market saw no seasonal slowdown this year

It's an inventory question and nothing more. As for a slow down, it's an artificial one. How do I know this? To the INTARWEBS!!

 

Per DataQuick:

 

Orange County 2010 yearly sales total: 29,909

Orange County 2011 yearly sales total: 29,494

Orange County 2012 yearly sales total: 23,032

 

Los Angeles 2010 yearly sales total: 74,945

Los Angeles 2011 yearly sales total: 74,209

Los Angeles 2012 yearly sales total: 59,561

 

You'll start to hear breathless reports about how 2012's prices have climbed, and they have without a doubt. When you also sell 538 less homes per month year over year in O.C., both average and real prices are going to get squeezed higher because of the type of properties that are selling.

 

23,032 sold homes / number of buyers competing (investor and owner occupied) is almost as interesting of a number as sold homes / licensed Realtors competing for each listing or sale. That number is crunched down further since a number of sales are dual agency transactions.

 

Thanks for reading.

John Wheaton NMLS 653018 | Redfin Open Book Recommended Lender
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Gold Contributor
BobPhillips-RE
Posts: 1,701
Registered: ‎12-13-2010
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Re: The local market saw no seasonal slowdown this year

Normally - as I've pointed out over many years - there IS a seasonal slowdown of SALES activity in the fall months, leading up to, and beyond, the Holidays.

 

As I pointed out in my original post there wasn't a "typical" slow down last fall due to THREE reasons, not just one.

 

It isn't just the lack of inventory.  Also significant are two additional factors - a surplus of buyers, AND incredibly low interest rates.

 

That trifecta of factors leads us - Orange County - to our present STRONG seller's market, and there is not much evidence that any of the 3 will change substantially over the next 5 or 6 months - the typical good selling season for our area.

All this, of course, is merely MY opinion. Thanks for reading.

Bob Phillips - Realty ONE Group - South Orange County, CA
Trusted Contributor
Seneca
Posts: 186
Registered: ‎02-13-2012

Re: The local market saw no seasonal slowdown this year

Inventory has dropped essentially on a straight line since July of 2011, with only a few small bumps and wiggles on the way down.  It's true there is strong seasonality to the number of houses sold over the past two years -- but not to the inventory.  Or not much, at least.  What you might see is a slowing of the decline in inventory in the spring, that's all.

 

Just do any Redfin search in Orange County, click "Orange County Stats & Trends," then adjust the graph to show houses for sale and houses sold.

Trusted Contributor
Seneca
Posts: 186
Registered: ‎02-13-2012

Re: The local market saw no seasonal slowdown this year

I also don't really believe the conspiracy theory idea that its banks doing all this manipulation of the REO/short inventory.  Sure, no doubt individual banks are, to the best extent they can, but the industory as a whole are incapable of that kind of coordinated and clever action, and I find it hard to believe it can make such a huge difference.   They're not smart enough, frankly.  If they were, they'd never have gotten themselves into the pickle they're in.

 

My personal take is just that homeowners have gotten steadily more conservative as the Second Great Depression drags on and on.  When jobs continue to be scarce, and real jobs continue to turn into McJobs, and health benefits are rising, and most asset yields crapping out, and the national government doing increasingly bizarre things like buying its own debt with printed money, and passing 2,000 page bills overhauling the entire health care system at midnight without anyone even reading them -- well, why wouldn't you get more conservative?

 

People are just hunkering down, that's all.  The price of gold is up.  Interstate migration is down.  Gun sales are booming. Owning a home feels more secure, for a wide variety of cultural and inherent personal reasons.  Sure, the bank has a massive right over you.  But...as long as you keep paying, your name is on the title, the property is yours -- you are lord and master.  In times of insecurity elsewhere, it's good to know that.

 

So people are just less willing to sell their houses, that's all.  They'll still do it if they must -- death, divorce, forced job change -- and they'll still do it if there's some wonderful opportunity, a great job in Utah, they find another house they like even better that they can afford, and they'll still do it if they're inherently risk-takers, snowboarders on the slopes o' life -- but that's inevitably a smaller group of people.

Silver Contributor
john72
Posts: 527
Registered: ‎02-19-2011
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Re: The local market saw no seasonal slowdown this year


BobPhillips-RE wrote:

 

It isn't just the lack of inventory.  Also significant are two additional factors - a surplus of buyers, AND incredibly low interest rates.

 



If inventory was at a normal level, there would not be a "surplus" of buyers. In fact there would be a "surplus" of inventory.

Gold Contributor
BobPhillips-RE
Posts: 1,701
Registered: ‎12-13-2010
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Re: The local market saw no seasonal slowdown this year

BobPhillips-RE wrote:

 

It isn't just the lack of inventory.  Also significant are two additional factors - a surplus of buyers, AND incredibly low interest rates.

 



If inventory was at a normal level, there would not be a "surplus" of buyers. In fact there would be a "surplus" of inventory.

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

OR, if interest rates were at a "normal" level, purchases might slow down, also.

 

_______________________________________________________________________________

 

THAT is why real estate cycles are called cycles.  Situations frequently change, and rewards those who are prepared.

All this, of course, is merely MY opinion. Thanks for reading.

Bob Phillips - Realty ONE Group - South Orange County, CA
Super Contributor
bukowski
Posts: 251
Registered: ‎04-21-2010

Re: The local market saw no seasonal slowdown this year

Yeah, people hunkered down and bought into doom and gloom and gold and guns for awhile, but just as is the inevitability of a bubble getting popped is the reality of the coming economic recovery and the release of pent-up demand and animal spirits. Households will not rent forever. Consumption will not stay depressed forever.