Orange County

[digo]

....according to the financial blogger at Calculated Risk

The Housing Bottom is Here

"First there are two bottoms for housing. The first is for new home sales, housing starts and residential investment. The second bottom is for prices. Sometimes these bottoms can happen years apart.

For the economy and jobs, the bottom for housing starts and new home sales is more important than the bottom for prices. However individual homeowners and potential home buyers are naturally more interested in prices. So when we discuss a “bottom” for housing, we need to be clear on what we mean.".............

[BobPhillips-RE]

Ivy Zelman, one of the more highly regarded ORIGINAL bears, recently also called a bottom

Here's an interesting video, where Ivy tears Diana Olick, the Queen of the Bears, to shreds, while pronouncing a real estate bottom:  ( For her, anyway.)

http://video.msnbc.msn.com/cnbc/46072603#null

She’s OBVIOUSLY an extremely articulate and bright lady.

Ivy’s impeccable qualifications:  ( Just in case some uninformed or otherwise nonsensical poster attempts to label her as some sort of real estate shill.)

http://www.bloomberglink.com/gatherings_participants_bio.php?gathering=8&Id=341

and

http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/Article/2916715/Hall-of-Fame-9-Ivy-Zelman.html?ArticleId=291671... 

[digo]

“One man's poison Ivy is another man's spinach" - George Ade

[Groundhog]

We are always more anxious to be distinguished for a talent which we do not possess, than to be praised for the fifteen which we do possess................. Mark Twain's Autobiography; More Maxims of Mark, Johnson, 1927

[bukowski]

Hello Bottom. Don't you know Calculated Risk is a shill.

Anyways, here's the story of the last four years: It turned out to be a good time to buy a house in OC. If you ignored the naysayers on Redfin forum you would've taken advantage of low prices and low mortgage rates. 

[Cadenza]

It's been a good time to buy in... 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012.

[LoansbyJW]

I did enjoy this real world example of how the housing bottom is in... Or perhaps not...

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/to-catch-a-falling-knife

I know the writer personally, and the numbers presented are verifiable. Can't say this was a doom or gloom shill, nor can you say this came from cheerleader either.

Thanks for reading,

[Groundhog]

JW,

That is an outstanding post.....and ain't it the truth!

I personally know of other such similar examples..............which all this proves ya can't trust the fox in the hen house! 

I believe one needs do their own COMPS and decide their offer amount as independently as possible, Or risk paying an unnecessarily inflated price accordingly. 

Thank you for taking the time to put up such an excellent example of what is going on in the REAL WORLD. And thanks indeed to your acquaintance on IHB, they did a fairly large amount of work in presenting such a detailed post. THOSE folks deserve a Public Service Award!

Groundhog opinion

OGR

[Goran_K]

I don't know how anyone can put their name out there and try to claim they "know the bottom". Ivy is a shill, and I don't agree with the CalculatedRisk analysis based on "new home sales". No historical relevance or tie in.

[BobPhillips-RE]

As was posted earlier:

"Ivy’s impeccable qualifications:  ( Just in case some uninformed or otherwise nonsensical poster attempts to label her as some sort of real estate shill.)

http://www.bloomberglink.com/gatherings_participants_bio.php?gathering=8&Id=341

and

http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/Article/2916715/Hall-of-Fame-9-Ivy-Zelman.html?ArticleId=291671... 

Let ye, who has SUPERIOR qualifications, throw the first stone.