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OC Register: SLUMP
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02-06-2012 10:28 AM
Lanser of OC Register is reporting on the slump of OC, saying middle of OC has biggest slump right now...even the "hot spots", zips near the beach had a y-o-y median price decline of 4.4% despite an increase in sales of 2.9%....
South-inland cities median prices falling off a cliff with y-o-y median price decline of 12.3%...stunning!
But I must say it doesn't look like the numbers quite add up...
North Inland median price -10% y-o-y
Mid-County -4.1% y-o-y
Beach Towns-4.4% y-o-y
South Inland-12.3% y-o-y
Yet the median selling price for all residences is -1.2% y-o-y....something seems wrong with the math...seems like the median y-o-y decline should be in the -7% range...am I missing something?
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/county-338934-o
Orange County housing hot spots are near the beach.
For the 22 business days ending Jan. 19 -- freshest numbers from DataQuick -- our region-by-region analysis of local real estate trends finds Orange County homebuying slicing up by geography this way …
- North Inland: 538 homes sold in these Orange County ZIP codes in this most recent period, -5.8% from a year ago. Median selling price? $396,250 in these 22 ZIPs. This most recent median price change was -10.0% in a year. North Inland accounted for 29% of recent home sales vs. 32% a year ago.
- Mid-County: These ZIPs -- median selling price $344,750 -- had 663 sales, -14.3% from a year ago. This was largest year-to-year drop among the four regions. In these 25 ZIPs, the median price change was -4.1% in a year. Mid-County accounted for 23% of recent home sales vs. 23% a year ago.
- Beach Towns: 422 homes sold in these ZIP codes in the most recent period, +2.9% from a year ago. This was largest year-to-year gain among the four regions. Median selling price? $588,000 in these 17 ZIPs. Median price change was -4.4% in a year. Beach Towns accounted for 18% of recent home sales vs. 17% a year ago.
- South Inland: These ZIPs -- median selling price $421,000 -- had 684 sales, +0.7% from a year ago. In these 19 ZIPs, median price change was -12.3% in a year. South Inland accounted for 30% of recent home sales vs. 28% a year ago.
Other analysis:
- Broken down another way, total homes sales in ZIPs in the north and mid-section of Orange County were -10.7% vs. a year ago as homebuying the rest of the county ran +1.6% vs. 12 months earlier.
- All told, countywide sales were -5.4% vs. a year ago. The median selling price was $400,000 for all residences sold in this period. That's -1.2% in the past year. Note: 137 sales -- 6% of all sales -- were not included in the regional analysis because ZIP location could not be determined.
Re: OC Register: SLUMP
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02-08-2012 10:07 AM
Wait until the new case shiller numbers are out for December 2011, and January 2012. The 2009 false bottom is going to get trashed.
Re: OC Register: SLUMP
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02-08-2012 10:31 AM
Not likely.
Even if it is lowered for a month or two - ever so slightly - it won't be long before it's passed, in an upward move, once again.
MOST experts expect the median to "skip" across that same bottom, ( Plus or minus 2-3% ) throughout this year, producing a relatively flat year, so it REALLY isn't a big deal, anyway. Certainly not something that will amount to a "trouncing".
Time will tell.
Bob Phillips - Realty ONE Group - South Orange County, CA
Re: OC Register: SLUMP
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02-08-2012 02:43 PM
BobPhillips-RE wrote:Not likely.
Even if it is lowered for a month or two - ever so slightly - it won't be long before it's passed, in an upward move, once again.
MOST experts expect the median to "skip" across that same bottom, ( Plus or minus 2-3% ) throughout this year, producing a relatively flat year, so it REALLY isn't a big deal, anyway. Certainly not something that will amount to a "trouncing".
Time will tell.
Bob, thanks for the humor once again....you keep telling us how well things are, as if we are already experiencing summer-like activity....yet the register keeps posting data on their website showing that the market is still deteriorating in median prices and mixed in sales, if you saw the link in my post...I give a vote of "no confidence" to the "MOST experts" class.
Highlights of DataQuick’s Orange County homebuying report. For the 22 business days ending Jan. 19 — the latest numbers — Orange County’s real estate market saw …
- Median selling price for all residences of $400,000 — that is off 1.2% vs. a year ago.
- Total Orange County sales of 2,377 residences closed in the latest period — that is off down 5.4% vs. a year ago.
Re: OC Register: SLUMP
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02-09-2012 09:37 AM - last edited on 02-09-2012 09:37 AM
September 2012
Even though the 2009 bottom has been eclipsed, prices are ONLY 7% beneath where they were in January of 2009 nominally. If you take that into consideration, it's merely flat with a slight curve down at the end.
I fully expect beginning in earnest by March 15th 2013 that prices will have not only recovered that 7% but also nudged a bit upward above that low.
All this, of course, is merely MY opinion. Thanks for reading.
Re: OC Register: SLUMP
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02-09-2012 10:50 AM
I am guessing Redfin is selling a few houses in this hot winter OC housing market we have right now.
But I wonder if any of the non-redfin agents who post to or follow this forum have been able to close any sales during this sizzling market? Word is this is the hottest off-season we have had in a long time.
Re: OC Register: SLUMP
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02-12-2012 10:32 AM
cricketts on this one


