Orange County

[kimstone]

There are no homes for sale and it seems to getting worse..Is there light in sight or are homes going to continue to be bid up to 2004 prices?

[gree3616]

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kimstone wrote:

There are no homes for sale and it seems to getting worse..Is there light in sight or are homes going to continue to be bid up to 2004 prices?

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No one knows the future but real estate is cyclical and eventually inventory will rise, especially when folks get just above water on their mortagages and can sell.  I never buy any commodity in short supply unless I absolutely have to so I am going to wait it out.  In the meantime, I will sell my place at top dollar and rent for a bit....but obviously everyone has different circumstances.

[BobPhillips-RE]

At this point, since the market continues to be stronger than usual - demand wise - there's every reason to expect that low inventory of available listings - meaning higher & higher prices for sellers, and frustrating multiple offers for buyers - will continue well into 2013 - possibly all the way through.

If you're a seller, you should monitor the inventory to keep a close watch on the number of your competitors that come on the market, realizing that said number SHOULD automatically increase a bit, with the Spring market, as it materializes.

At SOME point there will be more listings appearing, and fewer buyers bidding, and the market might return to normal. There will be a lot of indicators of that activity, if you watch closely, and chart the activity on a weekly, or at least monthly basis.

This next 6-8 months SHOULD be a great time to be a seller - unless you plan on being a buyer, also.

[gree3616]

Below is an example of why I think the low inventory is causing people to make questionable decisions.  This is an approx 1,000 sq ft detached condo (no ownership of land) with Mello-Roos that went for more than $500/sq ft.  Is it a nice place in a desirable location? Yes, but in my opinion it's only worth in the mid-$400s at best.  Hope these folks will be in there for a long time.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/1-La-Ronda-92606/home/4624757

[RE_Guy]

gree3616 -

Irvine is very hot right now.  I would place its value between $475,000 - $550,000 so it sold at its top value. The market turned in January and the public is beginning to recognize that the market has turned and at least is some areas, to pay a premium.

Of course, all this is just my opinion.

[gree3616]

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RE_Guy wrote:

gree3616 -

Irvine is very hot right now.  I would place its value between $475,000 - $550,000 so it sold at its top value. The market turned in January and the public is beginning to recognize that the market has turned and at least is some areas, to pay a premium.

Of course, all this is just my opinion.

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And I don't disagree with you...I will stay out of the fray until things settle a bit.  I just find it hard to believe that in 5 years that they'd be able to sell that place for the amount they paid but that's just my humble opinion.

[BobPhillips-RE]

"I just find it hard to believe that in 5 years that they'd be able to sell that place for the amount they paid but that's just my humble opinion."

A lot of nay-sayers said something similar at the beginning of EVERY upturn over the last 36 years. And with every cycle - so far - the price at the highest apex was a lot higher than the price at the lowest.

This market MAY be different, because of the "artificial" aspect of our last bubble, but - in MY humble opinion - it is way too soon to make that call.

[gree3616]

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BobPhillips-RE wrote:

"I just find it hard to believe that in 5 years that they'd be able to sell that place for the amount they paid but that's just my humble opinion."

A lot of nay-sayers said something similar at the beginning of EVERY upturn over the last 36 years. And with every cycle - so far - the price at the highest apex was a lot higher than the price at the lowest.

This market MAY be different, because of the "artificial" aspect of our last bubble, but - in MY humble opinion - it is way too soon to make that call.

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I am not a 'nay-sayer' Bob, just a guy who's had many of his predictions come true. 

[Viss]

My husband and I looked at a condo in Irvine and almost moved on it. Until we looked at the last 10-15 years history and found that in that area, the value really didn't move much (price wise, including inflation), in that neighborhood. I do agree that it will be hard to sell many of these condos years down the road to make any kind of money on them, unles you do an amazing amount of work on the inside.

I have a condo in central Ohio that I bought in 2006. When we moved in 2008, we chose to rent instead of sell.