Orange County

[BobPhillipsRE]

Wow!  Doom & Gloom devotees employing their usual tactics of flim-flamming.  

First, quote good stuff from a reliable source ( first paragraph )  careful to cherry-pick out the most negative portions of that article. ( and thereby making the entire article look like a negative one.)

Then, citing another D&GBB's concoction ( thereby losing at least 90% of any credibility.) which distorts the positive MSM ( main stream media.) article through the use of slyly slipping month's old results ( Or in the case of the infamous Credit Suisse charts of resets, YEAR'S old, totally obsolete data/concoctions.)  in a feeble attempt to make them appear to have cohesiveness.

Here, again, is yesterday's entire positive article: http://www.housingwire.com/2010/06/24/private-sector-mortgage-modifications-outnumber-hamp-more-than...   With this quote as its conclusion:

“The latest results continue to support the industry’s unprecedented efforts to assist borrowers across the country using myriad foreclosure prevention programs,” said Faith Schwartz, senior advisor for Hope Now. “The industry has also implemented many other retention efforts that go a long way to help borrowers.” ( Wow! PatiencGolden, playing with the fonts IS fun, isn't it.  Of course, going to the extreme that you do is a bit overkill.)

You know?  Rather than perpetuate this Redfin peeing contest, perhaps you D&GBB disciples can merely agree that for EVERY new negative article you can come up with, ( Not the stuff that was made up 6 months or 2 years ago.)  there is currently a 180 degree opposite POSITIVE article,  effectively diffusing, or even rendering irrelevant, your relentless barrage of negativity.

Yeah, what was I thinking?  Like THAT is gonna happen anytime soon.

[BobPhillipsRE]

Wow!  A positive article posted on a local D&GBB?  Will wonders never cease!  ( Of course, on the D&GBB - the IHB - they do manage to spin it into negative "news". )  But at least they was a brief glimmer of positivity on a D&GBB.  We just may be seeing a turnaround after all.  Here's the article - cut & pasted to remove the IHB negative addendums:

Modifications rise sharply on some mortgage loans

60-day-delinquent loans fall for first time in two years, Fannie and Freddie say

By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Loan modifications through the government's Home Affordable Modification Program tripled in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter, according to data that covers loans held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said Tuesday.

Also, loans 60 or more days past due fell for the first time in two years, dropping by nearly 23,800 to about 1.7 million in the first quarter, according to the FHFA's latest quarterly Foreclosure Prevention & Refinance report.

Overall, the FHFA said various efforts to keep homeowners out of foreclosure, including loan modifications, short sales and deeds-in-lieu, rose 75% in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter, to a total of 239,000 completed "foreclosure prevention activity" efforts.

Permanent mortgage modifications through the government's Home Affordable Modification Program rose to 136,000 at the end of the first quarter, up from 43,000 in the fourth quarter. Homeowners must successfully complete a trial modification period in order to make their modification permanent.

About 66% of modifications completed in the fourth quarter reduced borrowers' monthly payments by more than 20%.

Meanwhile, cumulative refinance volume through the Home Affordable Refinance Program rose 53% to nearly 291,600 at the end of the first quarter, up from 190,180 in the fourth quarter. The program allows existing Freddie and Fannie borrowers who are current on their mortgage payments to refinance and reduce their monthly mortgage payments at loan-to-value ratios up to 125%.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency regulates Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the 12 federal home loan banks; the numbers in the report don't reflect the Federal Housing Administration's efforts to prevent foreclosures.

A broader view

Overall, the total number of homeowners receiving restructured mortgages since April 2009 increased to 2.8 million; also, half of homeowners unable to enter a permanent HAMP modification get an alternate modification with their servicer, according to a separate report Monday from the Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Treasury Department.

The 2.8 million figure "includes more than 1.2 million homeowners who have started HAMP trial modifications and nearly 400,000 who have benefitted from FHA loss- mitigation activities," the report said. "Of those in the HAMP program, 346,000 have entered a permanent modification, saving a median of more than $500 per month," See HUD and Treasury's monthly housing scorecard.

"The good news is the industry is doing more than the government modifications," said Faith Schwartz, senior adviser for HOPE NOW, a private-sector alliance of mortgage servicers, investors, mortgage insurers and non-profit counselors. "They start with the government mods to see if they fit."

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said in a news release Monday: "The Administration's housing policies, combined with actions of the Fed, have lowered mortgage interest rates, helped stabilize home prices and reduced the rate of foreclosures, repairing some of the damage caused by the financial crisis to the financial security of millions and millions of American families."

Separately, the percentage of loans in foreclosure or with at least one payment past due was a non-seasonally-adjusted 14% in the first quarter, down from 15% in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to a Mortgage Bankers Association report in May. That works out to about 6.2 million loans somewhere in the delinquency or foreclosure process. See story on 14% of mortgages delinquent or in foreclosure.

Amy Hoak is a MarketWatch reporter based in Chicago. 

[cdcrez]

CNBC's Diana Olick on "New Loan Delinquencies on the Rise Again"

 "While the total delinquency rate rose 2.3 percent, which is not surprising given how much is in the pipeline, the 30-day delinquent bucket jumped 10 percent. That is surprising because the that number had been coming down of late. The LPS data report says that's because the "seasonal improvement period has expired," but I'm not sure normal seasonal patterns really apply to this market anymore.

 More likely is that home prices are not rebounding at the expected/hoped for pace, prompting more borrowers who are underwater on their loans to choose not to pay. And while the job market isn't bleeding so much anymore, it's not adding jobs back at the rate we need, nor is it re-instituting those full time jobs that were slashed to part-time, leaving many borrowers still "underemployed." So the delinquency rate nationwide now stands at 9.2 percent from this particular data set, and with the rise in new delinquencies, it won't be coming down any time soon."

"After a two-month decline, deterioration ratios increased, with 2.5 loans rolling to a "worse" status for every one that has improved. The number of delinquent loans that "cured" to a current status declined for every stage of delinquency, except in the "greater than six months delinquent" category. This improvement was likely the result of trial modifications made through the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) that transitioned into permanent status.

Oh good, so the HAMP program is helping "cure" those 6 month+ delinquencies. No, they're just delaying them yet again, since we know that the re-default rate on HAMP is only rising. Forget cure and think remission."

[BobPhillipsRE]

So, as I've stated repeatedly, for every negative article, there's a positive one.  

And the momentum is definitely more positive than negative.

[cdcrez]

From CNBC, "Bailout Watchdog Calls Mortgage Programs a Bust"

Here are a few excerpts:

"Government watchdogs are telling a Senate panel that the Obama administration's multibillion effort to help at-risk homeowners avoid foreclosure is not working and could put the economic recovery at risk.

 Special inspector general for the financial bailouts Neil Barofsky said Wednesday that the program has not "put an appreciable dent in foreclosure filings," during a hearing on the $700 billion bank bailout before the Senate Finance Committee.

 The homeownership program aims to reduce mortgage payments for millions of homeowners who can't afford their monthly bills. Recent data suggest it has helped about 400,000 households avoid foreclosure. About 530,000 have fallen out of the program.

The bailout has provided up to $50 billion for the mortgage modification programs."

If $50 billion "helped" 400,000 households avoid foreclosure, then it only cost $125,000 per mortgage modification.  Of your tax money.  To keep someone in a home they can not afford.

[BobPhillipsRE]

cdcrez continues to spread new stories about old news - a common tactic of doom & gloom bubble bloggers - a badge that cdcrez proudly wears.  Citing stuff that happened 6 months ago, or a year ago, is similar to driving forward, while looking in the rear view mirror. ( And hoping that the unseen path ahead is clear. )

Here's an article from today, about today;

 http://www.housingwire.com/2010/07/20/first-mortgage-default-rate-plunges-40-from-2009-sp

An excerpt:  "First mortgages led an overall decline in credit defaults in June, according to the Standard & Poor's/Experianindices today.

First and second mortgage default rates declined to 3.3% and 2.4%, respectively in June, based on information from Experian's consumer credit database. First mortgage default rates slipped 5% from May and 45.2% from a year earlier, while second mortgage default rates were down 0.03% from May and 44.54% from a year ago." ( End of excerpt.)

So foreclosures are slowing down - substantially - while distressed loan mitigation is improving - steadily.

That, my friends is the REAL news.

[cdcrez]

Were you a bit suspicious of the redefault rate being reported by the HAMP performance report?  If you were, you had good reason.

Click on "Scratch the Good News on HAMP" and you can read how the government defines redefault, or more accurately, avoids the issue.  I doubt if Orwell could have thought this up.

[BobPhillipsRE]

cdcrez asked: "Were you a bit suspicious of the redefault rate being reported by the HAMP performance report?"

Actually, no one mentioned the report - from yesterday - you're alluding to, so how is it relevant to THIS conversation?

[cdcrez]

HAMP continues it's way to the grave with only 15,000 new trial modifications started in June:

HAMP report for June

[BobPhillipsRE]

HAMP is less than half, and probably less than 25% of the loan modification picture.  

There are other, more successful alternatives, which I mentioned/linked at the beginning of this thread.

Here's more NEW news, rather than a re-hash of last year's stale "news".

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2010-07-23-mortgages23_CV_N.htm?csp=ManagingMoney