Orange County

[TrabucoDom]

It looks like Foothill 92610 took a massive price hit too....but I believe it is because of all the low priced condos that sold, resulting in a very low overall median price. Foothill median price down 34.2% while sales were up 127.3%.  

In Coto and zip 92679 which includes Wagon Wheel, Portola, Trabuco Canyon and other communities, I wonder if there was a big condo sales influence.

[cdcrezz]

South County Homes See Biggest Price Drops

"South inland ZIPs had 745 sales, down 2% from a year ago. In these 19 ZIPs, the latest median price was $435,000, down 10.0% vs. a year ago — fattest cut in the county."

[Goran_K]

Yeah, this makes me believe that the CS will dip below the 2009 bottom, if not Oct-Dec 2011, for sure January-March 2012.

[cdcrezz]

Median Trabuco/Coto down 11.4% from last year.

Homebuying Declines in 46 Zips!  Yours?

[AlexSin]

From same article:

".....30 of O.C.'s 83 ZIP codes with gains in their respective median selling price....."

"............. Overall, buyers' prices were -2.4% vs. a year ago.........."

[LoansbyJW]

-2.4% is virtually a flat line. Most 401k's dumped more than that in the past 12 months once you take into account fees and expenses.

This discussion reminds me of an "On Hold" message I heard yesterday - not in 2006 - while waiting to speak with an Escrow Officer:

Music... commercial.... music...."Did you know that on average Real Estate values double every 10 years?"

No, I did not.

Here on Planet Reality it appears values have regressed nearly to median prices 10 years ago!

Thanks for reading,

[Mike_]

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LoansbyJW wrote:

-2.4% is virtually a flat line.

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1. in 2011, inflation averaged about 2.8%, so inflation-adjusted price decline is about 5.2% (2.4+2.8)

2. typical down payment is 20%. this leverages 5 to 1. so that 5.2% decline is equivalent to a 25% loss of down payment.

3. to put the magnitude of the decline in context. historically average home price increase in the US is around 3% per year so a 2.4% decline is not insignificant.

you can call it a flat line, but for real estate, a 2.4% decline is significant.

[cdcrezz]

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AlexSin wrote:

From same article:

".....30 of O.C.'s 83 ZIP codes with gains in their respective median selling price....."

"............. Overall, buyers' prices were -2.4% vs. a year ago.........."

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It is a thread about Coto, so I was quoting a Coto stat.  Somewhere in this forum I recently read somone mistakenly write that prices in Coto were ONLY down 4.3 % for the year.  They are down more than double 4.3% and please see Mike's post for the significance of this decline, no matter if it is 4.3% or 11.3%.

[AlexSin]

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cdcrezz wrote:

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AlexSin wrote:

From same article:

".....30 of O.C.'s 83 ZIP codes with gains in their respective median selling price....."

"............. Overall, buyers' prices were -2.4% vs. a year ago.........."

---

It is a thread about Coto, so I was quoting a Coto stat.  Somewhere in this forum I recently read somone mistakenly write that prices in Coto were ONLY down 4.3 % for the year.  They are down more than double 4.3% and please see Mike's post for the significance of this decline, no matter if it is 4.3% or 11.3%.

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Plus 7% closing costs on top of that, tell me about it.

I spread my money equally between checking, saving, CD and S&P and made more than 2.8% in 2011, we all did aren't we.

[BobPhillips-RE]

First of all Trabuco/Coto is NOT Coto.

Since this IS a Coto specific thread, let's be specific, shall we?

In 2009, there were 181 houses sold in Coto, and their average price per square foot was $274.02.

In 2010, there were 199 houses sold in Coto, and their average price per square foot was $274.39.

In 2011, there were 208 houses sold in Coto, and their average price per square foot was $260.69.

The price difference between 2009 and 2011 was about 5% lower.

In a Community where the average down payment is probably more than 25%, ( And the majority of buyers are in for a long term.)  I doubt that many of the residents of Coto are terribly concerned about a 5% decline, over the past THREE years.