Orange County

[BobPhillips-RE]

I fully agree with cdcrezz's Coto synopsis. 

I will add that his blog - http://www.cotohousingblog.com - is considered a valuable resource of distressed property information about the community.  Not all Coto residents agree with his editorial style, or with his occasionally over the top negative rants, but those are easily ignored, while gleaning the more important Coto relative stuff. 

Such a distressed property resource would probably be equally valuable in Ladera.

[LoansbyJW]

Did I miss something? When did they start selling Sno-cones in Hades?  CDCRezz and Bob Phillips in a cordial discussion. What next? Cats and Dogs living together?

Coto over Ladera. Might be newer in Ladera, but you've really got to love high Mello Roos and outrageous HOA dues. There are newer Coto tracts, but they simply don't compare to how crowded Ladera lot sizes make things seem like. In 2015 there will be additional development surrounding Ladera that will also be fairly high density stuff, further pressuring Ladera prices and IMHO boosting Coto's value.

Thanks for reading,

[BobPhillips-RE]

"CDCRezz and Bob Phillips in a cordial discussion?."

Actually, John, we're both participating cordially in a recent phase of this discussion, not necessarily talking to one another, although I suppose I DID make a conciliatory gesture toward him, by agreeing with his most recent post.  Personally, IMHO, when it comes to Coto, we agree on a lot of things, cliffs, notwithstanding.

[Goran_K]

---

LoansbyJW wrote:

Did I miss something? When did they start selling Sno-cones in Hades?  CDCRezz and Bob Phillips in a cordial discussion. What next? Cats and Dogs living together?

Coto over Ladera. Might be newer in Ladera, but you've really got to love high Mello Roos and outrageous HOA dues. There are newer Coto tracts, but they simply don't compare to how crowded Ladera lot sizes make things seem like. In 2015 there will be additional development surrounding Ladera that will also be fairly high density stuff, further pressuring Ladera prices and IMHO boosting Coto's value.

Thanks for reading,

---

That's the thing I dislike about Irvine. I think TIC is ruining the city with all the high density building. The city is so crowded already in my opinion. I went to the multicultural festival and it looked like the parking lot to the superbowl. I wouldn't mind it if it was West LA since that's an urban environment, it fits, and I like urban. But living in a crowded suburb? Just seems weird.

Not to mention the prices. $800,000 to live on a motorcourt. Nooooooooooooo thanks. 

[LoansbyJW]

You won't enjoy Ladera then. It's possible to get a very nice $800k home, but add in the MR and HOA and your effective price is $900k. See if you can tour the Coto facilities. They have passes. From what I hear the foods not bad there. Kick the tires a bit on their dime.

Thanks for reading,

[BobPhillips-RE]

You should take a tour of the new Coto Golf & Racquet Club, 25291  Vista del Verde. 

Call Alice Arimitsu, membership director, at 949-858-4100, extension 208, or email her at alice.arimitsu@ourclub.com. 

A good tour takes about half an hour, so call her in advance, for an appointment. 

I'm a member, but don't hold that against them. 

Tell her I suggested that you call her.  I don't get anything out of that, but it might get you a discount on some fees.

[BobPhillips-RE]

In an adjacent Bulls vs Bears thread,  Digo said:  "Statistics are only truly meaningful when there are a lot of data points.  So one week/one month sales in a tiny demographic means very little.

Still you have to be completely disconnected from reality if you do not see that prices have adjusted significantly downward in Coto and OC in general."

In this thread, I have been "flattening out" the daily/weekly/monthly "skews" by figuring the year to date figures, this year, vs. 2010.

For example,  in 2010, through 10/14, there were 163 closed escrows in Coto.  Their average size was 3904 sq ft.  Their average price per sq ft was $276.46.  Their average sales price was $1,097,588.

For 2011, through yesterday, there have been 167 closed escrows. ( a few more.)  Their average size has been 3964 (Slightly more.)  Their average price per sq ft has been $265.81. ( $10.65 lower, less than a 4% decrease.)  Their average price has been $1,084,438. ( $13,150 lower,  a less than 1.5% decrease.)

A decrease of 1.5% to less than 4%, would NOT be considered "significant" by most statisticians.  The number of sales has been slightly higher, while the selling prices have been slightly lower. 

Can I get a "Big Whoopie!"? 

Another poster loves to use hyperbolic expressions such as "Prices are falling Off a Cliff, in Coto!!!!", or  "Prices are DIVING in Coto!!"

Such posts lose a LOT of credibility where there is no such hyperbole regarding the corresponding UPWARD spikes, on the previous side of periodic fluctuations.  But, then, that's MY job, to flatten out those daily/weekly/monthly cherry-picked peaks and valleys.

[cdcrezz]

from DataQucik via the OC Register:

Home Sales Fall in Half of O.C. Zip Codes

Town                    ZIP             Price          Yr. chg.    Sales       Yr. chg.

Trabuco/Coto

92679

$555,000

-11.2%

47

+27.0%

Year over year prices down 11.2% in Trabuco/Coto?!?!  So much for the realtors who think they can forecast with their predicitons of flat to slightly down and "it is only seasonal fluctuations."  -11.2%?!?!  Geez, how much worse can it get?

[Groundhog]

---

cdcrezz wrote:

Year over year prices down 11.2% in Trabuco/Coto?!?!  So much for the realtors who think they can forecast with their predicitons of flat to slightly down and "it is only seasonal fluctuations."  -11.2%?!?!  Geez, how much worse can it get?

---

Hiya cdcrezz,

Groundhog sez..............How much worse?..................A whole lot worse if the Euro fails, IMHO.

And as you probably are aware, The Fed is stress testing now to see if USA Banks can withstand a second recessionary wave with general unemployment at 13% in the USA.

This could become a tough year indeed, it will not be an "economic springtime".

Good luck to all,

Groundhog opinion

[cdcrezz]

---

Groundhog wrote:

---

cdcrezz wrote:

Year over year prices down 11.2% in Trabuco/Coto?!?!  So much for the realtors who think they can forecast with their predicitons of flat to slightly down and "it is only seasonal fluctuations."  -11.2%?!?!  Geez, how much worse can it get?

---

Hiya cdcrezz,

Groundhog sez..............How much worse?..................A whole lot worse if the Euro fails, IMHO.

And as you probably are aware, The Fed is stress testing now to see if USA Banks can withstand a second recessionary wave with general unemployment at 13% in the USA.

This could become a tough year indeed, it will not be an "economic springtime".

Good luck to all,

Groundhog opinion

---

GH - The stres tests are a sham designed only to instill confidence in the insolvent TBTF banks.