Orange County

[cdcrezz]

RE_Guy, your stats would seem to agree with Data Quick.  Since your data set encompasses a shorter duration the fall should be less and since the data set from Data Quick encompasses a whole year, the fall should be more.  By comparing your results to Data Quick's, it would appear the fall has accelerated in the last 3 months.

[cdcrezz]

Or prices are just falling.  But why accept the obvious?

[BobPhillips-RE]

"Or prices are just falling.  But why accept the obvious?"

There's a rather obvious difference from someone employing hyperbolic, overly dramatic words such as "falling", as in one particular poster's incessant, and usually misleading use of the term "falling off a cliff", when looking at most of the numbers displayed in RE_Guy's chart above, and a more realistic and descriptive term such as a "slight descent" of prices.

One suggests a violent freefall, while the more realistic term suggests a more than gentle softening.  ( Ah, that wasn't so bad, was it?)

Meanwhile, the number of houses sold, YOY remains similar, so no need for drama there, either.

[cdcrezz]

Looking at that graph, sales fell off a cliff at the end of July and have since settled on "Splat!"

[BobPhillips-RE]

Judging from the previous year, which the chart clearly shows, it would appear to be almost exactly the same set of zigs and zags, wouldn't you agree?

Interesting how the zag of last years late September/October SKYROCKETED, isnt it? 

It'll be interesting to see if the rest of THIS year, follows last year's pattern - as it seems to have done, so far, just like clockwork.

[Goran_K]

Last year means nothing because of the tax credit. You can't use it to compare anything.

[cdcrezz]

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Goran_K wrote:

Last year means nothing because of the tax credit. You can't use it to compare anything.

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That is only because prices continue to fall.  If they had risen, the tax credit would not have been influential.  And prices falling can be blamed on the tax credit for as long as they fall, even it is years.

[Goran_K]

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cdcrezz wrote:

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Goran_K wrote:

Last year means nothing because of the tax credit. You can't use it to compare anything.

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That is only because prices continue to fall.  If they had risen, the tax credit would not have been influential.  And prices falling can be blamed on the tax credit for as long as they fall, even it is years.

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That's true but I'm trying to think happy thoughts about Real Estate. I hear it can help.

[BobPhillips-RE]

Goran_K surmised:  "Last year means nothing because of the tax credit. You can't use it to compare anything."

Goran, this thread is specifically about Coto de Caza, where today's inventory of 129 available houses has an average price of $1,606,375.  I seriously doubt that there were enough "extra" sales in Coto during the tax credit periods to influence the final totals for last year.

From the IRS website:

Price

Under the Extended Home Buyer Tax Credit, credit may only be awarded on homes purchased for $800,000 or less.

Buyer Income

Under the Extended Home Buyer Tax Credit, which is effective on November 7, 2009,  single buyers with incomes up to $125,000 and married couples with incomes up to $225,000—may receive the maximum tax credit."

As cdcrezz knows, the average down payment in Coto exceeds 20%, which works out to not only an amount larger than $300k, but the income necessary to qualify for the mortgaged balance is a tad higher than the maximum allowed, above.

Getting back to cdcrezz's chart, yes prices are down, a "smidge" - less than 4% apparently - hardly the freefall that cdcrezz keeps trying to portray.

[Goran_K]

No way man. The tax credit's influence makes anything that happens this year irrelevant.