02-20-2012 08:52 AM
This from Bloomberg....
“I do believe the seeds of the recovery are being planted,” he said. According to Case, even with the decline in prices since the housing bubble burst, many homeowners who bought in the early 2000s are “still way ahead” in their investment, he said.
“You have people way on top with a high willingness to pay who are transacting,” Case said. “Everyone else is holding out waiting for prices to go back and no one knows how long it will take for that to clear up.”
This leads to “shadow” inventory, he said. There are many people postponing the sale of their homes until prices stabilize. As the market picks up a “seemingly infinite supply” will become available, he said.
Case said another positive sign is the trend in household formations, in which the “massive movement” of young people who moved in with their parents during the housing crises are venturing out again.
From Sept. 2010 to July 2011 the market lost 750,000 households, according to Case. During August and September, of last year the market added 518,000 households, he said.
“We are getting at the business of tearing down some of the old and cleaning up the mess,” Case said. “It’s a complicated picture, but everything seems to be moving in the right direction.”
02-20-2012 08:59 AM
I agree with his conclusion. Now that the 2009 false bottom is proven to be a sham realtor slogan, and with rates where they are now, you can find rental parity in many areas of OC, and not ghetto slums like Stanton, nice areas in South County.
Of course that doesn't mean that price pressure won't push prices down again, I can see another 5% drop YOY by January 2013.
Housing is healing itself though, and we are in a much better position than the end of 2008 where no one was buying a house.
02-20-2012 10:46 PM - edited 02-20-2012 11:00 PM
THE FIRST RULE OF SUCCESSFUL PLANTING...........
One must first have fertile fields in which to plant, and a healthy strong vine from which to acquire strong new seeds.
In the absence of strong healthy seed stock, only a sickly fruit can be expected to grow.
In the absence of fertile fields in which to plant, even strong seeds may wither.
Seeds of recovery......Very seedy indeed, IMHO.
02-21-2012 12:32 AM
With less the 10% down, low rates, possible expansion of lifeless Funnie Mae & Foooey Mac, and talks of turning over the REOs to hedge funds, a Wall Street engineered RE comeback might not be that hard. Banksters have their hands on all the levers to herd the sheeple where they want.
One can feel weathy in two ways: increase savings by higher salary/wage over cost of living... OR... slick and easy credit. The middle class ain't taking the first route. That's how America has become more productive than ever - by gutting and deep-frying Joe Blow.
Here's one example: A Tale of Two Systems ... the result when you let finance gurus run the auto manufacturers instead auto engineers and designers.
02-21-2012 11:19 AM - edited 02-21-2012 11:33 AM
Cadenza said........One can feel weathy in two ways: increase savings by higher salary/wage over cost of living... OR... slick and easy credit. The middle class ain't taking the first route. That's how America has become more productive than ever - by gutting and deep-frying Joe Blow.
Nice post Cadenza, I enjoyed the article about the auto industry too.
I would comment thus, to rant on...........
SLICK & EASY CREDIT = FERTILIZER FOR ECONOMIC SEEDS............And we all know the nature of fertilizer, huh?
I do believe Wall Street is attempting to fertilize a housing industry comeback.............FOR WS INSIDERS TO BENEFIT FROM.
The Biggie Piggies are no doubt feeling the pain of loosing their Mega Million dollar bonus payoffs.
It has been well demonstrated that fertilizer gimmicks will not a strong economy make. Only principled hard work, mutual respect among the population and a sense of frugality will create and sustain a lasting strong economy.
DER DEUTSCHLANDERS are a great example of such principles. Here is a little bit of information from The Free Dictionary and Online Encyclopedia by Farlex.
The Federal Republic of Germany has for many years benefited from a highly skilled population that enjoys a high standard of living and an extensive social welfare program. Since unification, however, Germany has faced the economic challenge of transforming the former East Germany from a deteriorating command economy dependent on low-quality heavy industrial products to a technologically advanced market economy. Unemployment in the east has remained consistently higher than that in the west, and although several larger urban centers there have begun to revive economically, most E German industrially cities remain depressed. Since the postwar years, the German economy has emphasized management-labor consensus, which, while generally avoiding labor strife, has also created a relatively inflexible labor environment where employers are reluctant to hire more than the minimum required number of skilled workers, since it is difficult to fire them once they are hired.
Manufacturing and service industries are the dominant economic activities; agriculture accounts for about 1% of the gross national product (GNP) and occupies about 3% of the workforce. Manufactures include iron and steel, motor vehicles, machinery and machine tools, chemicals, electronics, ships, food and beverages, cement, and textiles. Hard coal and lignite are mined. Overall, the principal German agricultural products are potatoes, wheat, barley, rye, sugar beets, cabbage, fruit, and dairy products. Large numbers of cattle, hogs, and poultry are raised. Germany is one of the world's largest exporters; it conducts over 50% of its trade with other European Union countries.
WE USED TO HAVE STRENGTH OF PRINCIPLES IN THIS COUNTRY, SADLY THAT IS LONG GONE NOW. A RENAISSANCE OF SUCH PRINCIPLED STRENGTHS AS WORKING TOGETHER AND FRUGALITY IS NOW THE ONLY REAL PATH TO ECONOMIC SALVATION OF THE AMERICAN DREAM.
THE VERY IDEA OF SURVIVING LONG TERM UPON A PURELY GREED DRIVEN ECONOMIC MODEL, ONE WHICH RELIES UPON INTERNAL CONSUMER SPENDING FOR 70% OF IT'S REVENUE ACTIVITY, IS LUDICROUS AT BEST.
OUR ECONOMY HAS BECOME LIKE AS A SNAKE WHICH CONSUMES ITSELF IN DESPERATION. THIS IS NOT A PRETTY PICTURE.
If The Sheeple are again given easy credit and buy into that scam again (as they would). We will all regret it, as it would surely become THE GREAT AMERICAN HOUSING BUBBLE COLLAPSE - PARTIE DEUXIEME.
DON'T TAKE ANY WOODEN FERTILIZER NICKELS MY FORUM FRIENDS.
02-22-2012 09:05 AM
"Housing also showed signs of improvement late last year with existing home sales rising in December for the third consecutive month. Indicators point to some good pickup in construction of apartment buildings and modest pickup in single-family construction in some locations. Overall, housing is expected to add to gross domestic product (GDP) for the first time in seven years, albeit by a very modest amount."
It's NOT as if anyone on this forum is predicting an improvement in prices anytime soon. My own prognostications have been more along the line of "It has BEEN relatively flat over the last 3 years, and will probably continue to do so".
Bob Phillips - Realty ONE Group - South Orange County, CA