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Regular Contributor
RWW
Posts: 63
Registered: ‎03-14-2012

"Bubble won't burst / Study finds" -- 2005 lol

http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Bubble-won-t-burst-Study-finds-Bay-Area-housing-2577430.php

 

These are always good for a laugh and a half.  Kool-aiders are drinking this stuff again :smileyhappy:.

Regular Contributor
bahomeloaner
Posts: 85
Registered: ‎05-15-2012
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Re: "Bubble won't burst / Study finds" -- 2005 lol

It required PhD is economics and no common sense to miss seeing the bubble. If one is interested in the correct analysis, go to this web site instead:

 

www.itulip.com

 

In the top bar, go to 'iTulip's record' and 'housing bubble'. The only reason I guess why the blog owner's predictions turned out to be true is that he is not university trained economist but rather a entrepreneur/CEO.

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kinectimal
Posts: 442
Registered: ‎12-18-2011
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Re: "Bubble won't burst / Study finds" -- 2005 lol

[ Edited ]

Actually they were sort of right San Francisco and New York are still above 2005 prices.  Not sure about Los Angeles.  

 

San Diego and Miami were in a bubble just like they predicted.

Silver Regular Contributor
Dukey
Posts: 676
Registered: ‎07-08-2011

Re: "Bubble won't burst / Study finds" -- 2005 lol


RWW wrote:

http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Bubble-won-t-burst-Study-finds-Bay-Area-housing-2577430.php

 

These are always good for a laugh and a half.  Kool-aiders are drinking this stuff again :smileyhappy:.


We learn history so as not to repeat it and yeah there are sucker born every min when one becomes the chump as last one to hold the bag - it has happened before (albeit even in bay area only 5 yrs ago) and it will happen again.  Supply catches up with demand or bid frenzy leading to bubble popping despite ardent denials by the soon to be bagholders - right to the end.

 

The RE bulls gloating in their "paper" gains miss the basic principles of "wealth" creation and that is no gain or loss till one sells the asset and if you plan to stay in the bay area and say move up - it's a moot point since new house price has gone up.  Different story in one sold and say moved out of state or less desirable parts of CA.

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NoobInSF
Posts: 171
Registered: ‎12-27-2010
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Re: "Bubble won't burst / Study finds" -- 2005 lol


Dukey wrote:

 

The RE bulls gloating in their "paper" gains miss the basic principles of "wealth" creation and that is no gain or loss till one sells the asset and if you plan to stay in the bay area and say move up - it's a moot point since new house price has gone up.  Different story in one sold and say moved out of state or less desirable parts of CA.


True.  Though if one "moves down" then appreciation is nice. 

 

I have some friends who got sick of owning a big old house and sold it for a decent profit.  They paid cash for a condo. 

 

They aren't particularly savvy - just lucky they bought in a desirable area and held for 10 years.  I wouldn't mind having some of that luck myself!  :smileyhappy:

Silver Trusted Contributor
Michelle1x
Posts: 1,063
Registered: ‎02-17-2008

Re: "Bubble won't burst / Study finds" -- 2005 lol

There are a lot of rental investors here so the profit is ours to keep in those cases.

 

But what I find amusing about this, is that when the reciprocal argument is made with regard to STOCKS, "I haven't lost until I sell", the bears LOL.  Somehow if you make money you need to sell to realize it, but if you lose it then you've lost it.  OK.

Platinum Trusted Contributor
elt1
Posts: 5,031
Registered: ‎01-04-2010

Re: "Bubble won't burst / Study finds" -- 2005 lol

the bubble was primarily in sub prime areas where some prices dropped 80%. Prime SF and PA dropped 20% at most and only affected people that had to sell. PA and SF are again at alltime highs as is most of the RBA. Even RWC is close to the 2007 highs. Sub prime areas still have a long way to go. Discovery Bay is still down 40% from the highs.

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Dukey
Posts: 676
Registered: ‎07-08-2011
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Re: "Bubble won't burst / Study finds" -- 2005 lol


Michelle1x wrote:

There are a lot of rental investors here so the profit is ours to keep in those cases.

 

But what I find amusing about this, is that when the reciprocal argument is made with regard to STOCKS, "I haven't lost until I sell", the bears LOL.  Somehow if you make money you need to sell to realize it, but if you lose it then you've lost it.  OK.


LOL - Don't count your beans yet on the rental properties...  Depreciation write down was nice but till I sold the rental and it came to eat into my profit.

 

And lest we forget any kind of investment and even the "prized" rental RE (with so many newbie landlord tycoon wanna be filled with naivette bravado here in Redfun lately) can lose value when the house market goes down (yes Virginia there is this thing called gravity Sir Newton discovered to chagrin of Kool Aid drinkers sometimes).  Now if anyone here are so naive as to believe that making money is that easy in this world without taking huge risk - got Brooklyn bridge to sell to you.

 

PS - Soon we'll be seeing more reality shows on flippin and informercial with that Vietnamese chap on a boat surrounded by girls in bikini hawking how to become RE tycoon.  :smileylol:

Gold Contributor
mediaguru
Posts: 1,896
Registered: ‎03-03-2011
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Re: "Bubble won't burst / Study finds" -- 2005 lol

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kinectimal
Posts: 442
Registered: ‎12-18-2011
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Re: "Bubble won't burst / Study finds" -- 2005 lol


bahomeloaner wrote:

It required PhD is economics and no common sense to miss seeing the bubble. If one is interested in the correct analysis, go to this web site instead:

 

www.itulip.com

 

In the top bar, go to 'iTulip's record' and 'housing bubble'. The only reason I guess why the blog owner's predictions turned out to be true is that he is not university trained economist but rather a entrepreneur/CEO.


They were warning about the housing bubble as early as 2002 not sure if I'd call that being right.  The housing market goes in cycles so if you keep saying the same thing long enough you can eventually can say you were right!