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GreenGuy
Posts: 1
Registered: ‎01-24-2013
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Mortgage rates, Immigration and Prop 13 drive bay area housing-- going up 8-12% for next 3 years

1. Likes of Facebook, Google , Apple hiring people all over USofA and Universities and bringing them to bay area..

2. Prop 13- making sellers to saty longer in houses so that they keep low tax...decreasing inventory. without prop 13 many old homeowners won't be able to afford "market price" property tax

3. Bernanke policy of pumping money theu low mortgage rates enabling people to quote higher prices

4. Cash buyers from China/HongKong/Russia

 

If the below fuel is added to this fire it may get more crazy

1. Immigarion reform- that will bring many green cards to H1b's, new h1b, illelgal to legal conversion--- all inflationary for housing

2. China-Japan war over island, india-Pakistan war...just like when china took over Hongkong in 1992, brought in some very wealthy immigrants- These events will lead to more growth in new people coming to bay area. Currently lots of people are moving back to Bejing and Banglore. For every 2 that comes here 1 goes back. that trend will stop if there is war or those countries have issues like Tibet etc...

 

The only thing which may stop this 8-12% increase in prices for next 5 years-

 

One of The FAULTS (calaveras, Hayward)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gold Contributor
mediaguru
Posts: 1,808
Registered: ‎03-03-2011

Re: Mortgage rates, Immigration and Prop 13 drive bay area housing-- going up 8-12% for next 3 years

[ Edited ]

GreenGuy wrote:

The only thing which may stop this 8-12% increase in prices for next 5 years-

 

 



I'm going to call you 100% wrong on that (unless you mean 8-12% TOTAL increase over the course of 5 years) -- if you mean that much ANNUAL growth is sustainable -- for any, or even all, of the above reasons -- think again.  Also, I'm not sure how much hiring a company does while its market cap just lost 25-30% and continues a precipitous decline (Apple).  The only other way prices can go up is for incomes to go up commensurately.  So far, there's not evidence of that. 

 

 

There will probably be some continued growth for a little while (I'm calling the rest of this year, possibly into next a little bit, but will end before end of 2014)

 

And for those of you who don't think I know how to time things... here is when I decided to buy my house:

 

 

 

In other words... I WAITED FOR THE BOTTOM.

Regular Contributor
wc_netzero
Posts: 106
Registered: ‎07-24-2007
0

Re: Mortgage rates, Immigration and Prop 13 drive bay area housing-- going up 8-12% for next 3 years

[ Edited ]

Good points.  A couple of things.

 

> 1. Immigarion reform- that will bring many green cards to H1b's, new h1b, illelgal to legal conversion--- all inflationary for housing

 

H1Bs tend not to buy homes straight off because they don't have permanent residence status yet.  The illegal to legal conversions probably won't be luxury renters or homebuyers for a while.  So their impact should be less.

 

>2. China-Japan war over island, india-Pakistan war...just like when china took over Hongkong in 1992, brought in some very wealthy immigrants- 

 

The Hong Kong handover to China was in 1997.  So if there was an influx of wealthy immigrants before 1992, it may not have been related to the handover.  Which brings the question of if instability would bring immigrants to the SF Bay area, and if they would compete to buy here if they came.  Also they cannot just come.  They would still need Visa or status here, as you noted with immigration reform.  

 

 

Gold Regular Contributor
sheriff
Posts: 2,217
Registered: ‎06-01-2012
0

Re: Mortgage rates, Immigration and Prop 13 drive bay area housing-- going up 8-12% for next 3 years

Wealthy immigrants can buy a visa.  All they have to do is start a company that employs a few people and the U.S. with give them one.

Regular Contributor
Acre
Posts: 167
Registered: ‎06-14-2012
0

Re: Mortgage rates, Immigration and Prop 13 drive bay area housing-- going up 8-12% for next 3 years

As I believe elt1 has stated a major quake would destroy far more housing than people - further driving UP prices.

Gold Super Contributor
TerriM
Posts: 3,013
Registered: ‎05-02-2011
0

Re: Mortgage rates, Immigration and Prop 13 drive bay area housing-- going up 8-12% for next 3 years


wc_netzero wrote:

Good points.  A couple of things.

 

> 1. Immigarion reform- that will bring many green cards to H1b's, new h1b, illelgal to legal conversion--- all inflationary for housing

 

H1Bs tend not to buy homes straight off because they don't have permanent residence status yet.  The illegal to legal conversions probably won't be luxury renters or homebuyers for a while.  So their impact should be less.

 


Agreed.  They tend to make a lot less than the average Bay area resident and are willing to live in the less-nice neighborhoods.   I doubt Green Card status will change that much.  I'd guess that they'll still fuel the rental market the way they do now, or that they'll buy in the areas that they were previously renting in.   

 

I also have to wonder if their taxes would be closely scrutinized.  It's one thing to work for cash and not file taxes, but will green card status allow them to make enough extra to file taxes and still have the same money left over?

 

 

The people who are immigrants making a lot more money, say working for the Tech industry, tend to have their visas up-to-date and can buy a house, but they also tend to marry someone in the US who would've/could've bought a house anyways--or at least that's been my experience with probably three-quarters of the college-graduated immigrants that I know....

Platinum Super Contributor
buyinghouse
Posts: 5,878
Registered: ‎04-23-2011
0

Re: Mortgage rates, Immigration and Prop 13 drive bay area housing-- going up 8-12% for next 3 years

   Knowing a lot about immigration, yes, the new "legal" immigrants won't have the right to do anything that a permanent resident can do. That is, the right to travel in and out of the country, except if there's a provision on the new immigration reform that allows them to go back and forth. It's well known that some republicans are asking for a provision that doesn't allow anybody applying to this new IR to become citizens, others are against it. They say if this IR is put in place, the applicant will wait for about 5 years to apply for a Green Card.

 

   Then, as I was told at the bank, without a Green Card you are not illegible to obtain a loan, even though I was told here that there are banks doing that (see? That's why the bubble forms by breaking the rules). They also won't be able to vote and they will not be allowed to bring anyone legally into this country. Only residents can petition for any of their children and spouse. They can petition for their parents, and siblings until after they become citizens.

 

   Now, I may be wrong, but I wouldn't confuse visa holders with immigrants. Immigrants come to stay for a reason, straight from their native home by holding an approved petition or jumping the fence on the border (I just walked in by the beach in San Isidro when it didn't go that far into the ocean). There are some visas that won't allow the holder to become resident. Others, will be helped if the company petition a Green Card for them due to their work. And that is a long process, sometimes the visa holder loses his status when he is fired, laid off or he is out of work. They are in limbo, they are not immigrants but seasonal workers.

 

  Also, under the new/old immigration overhaul of 1996, anybody entering the country illegally, won't be able to be petitioned by anybody, but, here we go, those who entered legally with a visa, can overstay, and apply to any program, be this asylum, domestic violence (apply to anyone, legal or not) and through a marriage.

 

  The only ones allowed to enter the country illegally, step on American (US) soil and get a Green Card one year and one day later of their illegal entrance are the Cubans. No questions asked. They will have a beautiful life in this country, 7 years of living like kings, with everything paid for by you and I. As refugees, they are protected by the Cuban Adjustment Act. 20,000 come today, 20,000 visas or Green Cards need to be issued while the rest of the world waits for 10-20 years.

 

  Ways to stay/get legal in this country?

 

1- Entering illegally and applying to any program like NACARA, asylum, TPS, deferred action (dreamers), refugee status (Cubans and others), and visa U that applies to domestic violence and people that have been abused in human trafficking and others I forget. And any immigration reform

 

2- Petition through a parent or a spouse, be this resident or citizen of this country. Through marriage, you become resident 6 months later or more, depending and then in 3 years you apply to your citizenship. Others holding a GC have to wait 5 years to apply for citizenship (4.9 years).

 

3- Entering legally (tourist visa, any visa as far as I know) and marring an American Citizen.

 

4- Being born overseas of an American parent.

 

5- Investing in the US. I haven't checked lately if the amount changed, it was $500K years ago. You needed to create jobs, I think 10 jobs in order to get your GC. Don't confuse with buying things. Nope, that doesn't apply.

 

  It's been 2 years since I stopped thinking about immigration. I was one of those you asked, he would know it.

 

  Oh, by the way, an illegal can apply to an ITIN or IRS identification # and prepare their taxes, they won't get any money back though. And, being there, done that, cash is the king. You don't need to be a resident, citizen or legal immigrant to cheat the IRS. I know many that do, too many.....Do you?:smileyvery-happy:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regular Contributor
Acre
Posts: 167
Registered: ‎06-14-2012
0

Re: Mortgage rates, Immigration and Prop 13 drive bay area housing-- going up 8-12% for next 3 years

[ Edited ]

buyinghouse wrote:

   Knowing a lot about immigration, yes, the new "legal" immigrants won't have the right to do anything that a permanent resident can do. That is, the right to travel in and out of the country, except if there's a provision on the new immigration reform that allows them to go back and forth. It's well known that some republicans are asking for a provision that doesn't allow anybody applying to this new IR to become citizens, others are against it. They say if this IR is put in place, the applicant will wait for about 5 years to apply for a Green Card.

 

   Then, as I was told at the bank, without a Green Card you are not illegible to obtain a loan, even though I was told here that there are banks doing that (see? That's why the bubble forms by breaking the rules). They also won't be able to vote and they will not be allowed to bring anyone legally into this country. Only residents can petition for any of their children and spouse. They can petition for their parents, and siblings until after they become citizens.

 

   Now, I may be wrong, but I wouldn't confuse visa holders with immigrants. Immigrants come to stay for a reason, straight from their native home by holding an approved petition or jumping the fence on the border (I just walked in by the beach in San Isidro when it didn't go that far into the ocean). There are some visas that won't allow the holder to become resident. Others, will be helped if the company petition a Green Card for them due to their work. And that is a long process, sometimes the visa holder loses his status when he is fired, laid off or he is out of work. They are in limbo, they are not immigrants but seasonal workers.

 

  Also, under the new/old immigration overhaul of 1996, anybody entering the country illegally, won't be able to be petitioned by anybody, but, here we go, those who entered legally with a visa, can overstay, and apply to any program, be this asylum, domestic violence (apply to anyone, legal or not) and through a marriage.

 

  The only ones allowed to enter the country illegally, step on American (US) soil and get a Green Card one year and one day later of their illegal entrance are the Cubans. No questions asked. They will have a beautiful life in this country, 7 years of living like kings, with everything paid for by you and I. As refugees, they are protected by the Cuban Adjustment Act. 20,000 come today, 20,000 visas or Green Cards need to be issued while the rest of the world waits for 10-20 years.

 

  Ways to stay/get legal in this country?

 

1- Entering illegally and applying to any program like NACARA, asylum, TPS, deferred action (dreamers), refugee status (Cubans and others), and visa U that applies to domestic violence and people that have been abused in human trafficking and others I forget. And any immigration reform

 

2- Petition through a parent or a spouse, be this resident or citizen of this country. Through marriage, you become resident 6 months later or more, depending and then in 3 years you apply to your citizenship. Others holding a GC have to wait 5 years to apply for citizenship (4.9 years).

 

3- Entering legally (tourist visa, any visa as far as I know) and marring an American Citizen.

 

4- Being born overseas of an American parent.

 

5- Investing in the US. I haven't checked lately if the amount changed, it was $500K years ago. You needed to create jobs, I think 10 jobs in order to get your GC. Don't confuse with buying things. Nope, that doesn't apply.

 

  It's been 2 years since I stopped thinking about immigration. I was one of those you asked, he would know it.

 

  Oh, by the way, an illegal can apply to an ITIN or IRS identification # and prepare their taxes, they won't get any money back though. And, being there, done that, cash is the king. You don't need to be a resident, citizen or legal immigrant to cheat the IRS. I know many that do, too many.....Do you?:smileyvery-happy:

 

 

 

 

 

 


I think you meant "marrying" an American citizen :smileyvery-happy:

I believe the Cubans have to make it onto US soil. Remember those guys we turned back in the 90's - the ones who converted a '57 Chevy into a boat? I was shaking my head over that; we need a system that awards points for style!

Contributor
kelpdiver
Posts: 39
Registered: ‎11-16-2012
0

Re: Mortgage rates, Immigration and Prop 13 drive bay area housing-- going up 8-12% for next 3 years

> I'm going to call you 100% wrong on that (unless you mean 8-12% TOTAL increase over the course of 5 years) -- if you mean that much ANNUAL growth is sustainable -- for any, or even all, of the above reasons -- think again.  Also, I'm not sure how much hiring a company does while its market cap just lost 25-30% and continues a precipitous decline (Apple).  The only other way prices can go up is for incomes to go up commensurately.  So far, there's not evidence of that.

 

That company made 13.1B in profits in the last quarter.  The drop in market cap hurts hiring not one bit, and if they use options as part of their offer letters they're in a stronger position now than they were 6 months ago when the stock was clearly pushing valuation boundaries.  If Apple wants to continue to push as a market leader, they need to continue to hire talent.  If they want to hole up with their current hand, they hasten the transition to a stable value company. 

 

BTW, your graph hardly shows you bought at the bottom...a BS "zestimate" for your individual property can't be taken seriously.  Only actual sales can.  The zip code average means much more...and it shows a fairly flat pattern that suggests people should buy when the right opportunity presents itself.  

 

If you did want to take Zestimate seriously, then it shows a serious flaw in your home as it used to track closely with the zip code, and now it lags dramatically below. 

Platinum Super Contributor
buyinghouse
Posts: 5,878
Registered: ‎04-23-2011
0

Re: Mortgage rates, Immigration and Prop 13 drive bay area housing-- going up 8-12% for next 3 years


Acre wrote:

buyinghouse wrote:

   Knowing a lot about immigration, yes, the new "legal" immigrants won't have the right to do anything that a permanent resident can do. That is, the right to travel in and out of the country, except if there's a provision on the new immigration reform that allows them to go back and forth. It's well known that some republicans are asking for a provision that doesn't allow anybody applying to this new IR to become citizens, others are against it. They say if this IR is put in place, the applicant will wait for about 5 years to apply for a Green Card.

 

   Then, as I was told at the bank, without a Green Card you are not illegible to obtain a loan, even though I was told here that there are banks doing that (see? That's why the bubble forms by breaking the rules). They also won't be able to vote and they will not be allowed to bring anyone legally into this country. Only residents can petition for any of their children and spouse. They can petition for their parents, and siblings until after they become citizens.

 

   Now, I may be wrong, but I wouldn't confuse visa holders with immigrants. Immigrants come to stay for a reason, straight from their native home by holding an approved petition or jumping the fence on the border (I just walked in by the beach in San Isidro when it didn't go that far into the ocean). There are some visas that won't allow the holder to become resident. Others, will be helped if the company petition a Green Card for them due to their work. And that is a long process, sometimes the visa holder loses his status when he is fired, laid off or he is out of work. They are in limbo, they are not immigrants but seasonal workers.

 

  Also, under the new/old immigration overhaul of 1996, anybody entering the country illegally, won't be able to be petitioned by anybody, but, here we go, those who entered legally with a visa, can overstay, and apply to any program, be this asylum, domestic violence (apply to anyone, legal or not) and through a marriage.

 

  The only ones allowed to enter the country illegally, step on American (US) soil and get a Green Card one year and one day later of their illegal entrance are the Cubans. No questions asked. They will have a beautiful life in this country, 7 years of living like kings, with everything paid for by you and I. As refugees, they are protected by the Cuban Adjustment Act. 20,000 come today, 20,000 visas or Green Cards need to be issued while the rest of the world waits for 10-20 years.

 

  Ways to stay/get legal in this country?

 

1- Entering illegally and applying to any program like NACARA, asylum, TPS, deferred action (dreamers), refugee status (Cubans and others), and visa U that applies to domestic violence and people that have been abused in human trafficking and others I forget. And any immigration reform

 

2- Petition through a parent or a spouse, be this resident or citizen of this country. Through marriage, you become resident 6 months later or more, depending and then in 3 years you apply to your citizenship. Others holding a GC have to wait 5 years to apply for citizenship (4.9 years).

 

3- Entering legally (tourist visa, any visa as far as I know) and marring an American Citizen.

 

4- Being born overseas of an American parent.

 

5- Investing in the US. I haven't checked lately if the amount changed, it was $500K years ago. You needed to create jobs, I think 10 jobs in order to get your GC. Don't confuse with buying things. Nope, that doesn't apply.

 

  It's been 2 years since I stopped thinking about immigration. I was one of those you asked, he would know it.

 

  Oh, by the way, an illegal can apply to an ITIN or IRS identification # and prepare their taxes, they won't get any money back though. And, being there, done that, cash is the king. You don't need to be a resident, citizen or legal immigrant to cheat the IRS. I know many that do, too many.....Do you?:smileyvery-happy:

 

 

 

 

 

 


I think you meant "marrying" an American citizen :smileyvery-happy:

I believe the Cubans have to make it onto US soil. Remember those guys we turned back in the 90's - the ones who converted a '57 Chevy into a boat? I was shaking my head over that; we need a system that awards points for style!


Dang Redfin spell check, where are you when I need you?:smileyvery-happy:

 

  The real deal was that these people needed some kind of "reward" for at least making it to the US. They usually were arrested landing or in the ocean and sent back. Clinton changed it to Dry feet, wet feet, where if they put a foot on US soil they would qualify for the program. It was intended for those kind of immigrants. Nowadays, they come through the airports, any other ports of entry and they just need to declare they are from Cuba to be granted a refugee status.

 

   Yes, there are many treasures back there. Even in Central America you can see jewels but transportation is expensive.