Bay Area

[Sam2]

I am wondering if somewhere there is information available on what the average annual home price appreciate in the inner bay area (proper bay area) has been over the past 20 years and what it is anticipated for the next 5 years?

Thanks.

[davidmn]

The report "Froth Finding Mission" from HSBC, published in 2006 has this information.

According to it, Oakland-Fremont-Hayward has appreciated 11.2% annualized from 2001-2006, after inflation. The 20 year average real price gain is 5.5%, and 30 year, 5.3%. For SF-San Mateo-Redwood City, those numbers are 7.9%, 5.8%, and 5.5%, respectively.

Of course with the past 2 years of depreciation (East Bay) or flat prices (SF/San Mateo/Redwood City), the 5 year annualized numbers are wrong, and the longer-term numbers off, but less so. Considering prices are now about where they were in 2004 for the East Bay, you're looking at close to 0% annualized appreciation the past 5 years.

[Sam2]

Great.  Thank you very much.  I was thinking that maybe averaging a 3% annual return over the course of next 10 years maybe a safe way to calculate.  Thanks.