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aatif786
Posts: 10
Registered: ‎10-09-2011
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2013 Bay Area Trend Predictions?

Hey Folks,

 

Anyone up to offer their opinion (backed by at least some data) on what kind of market we will see in the Bay Area in 2013?

 

I am particulary interested in knowing if trends like mutliple-offer listings will continue to be the new normal in 2013. There is sure to be an end to a frenzy like this, no?

 

I am asking this question becuase I want to know whether I will be priced out next year (I am ready to buy now and am looking for homes around 1500 sq. ft. in the Fremont/Hayward area under 600K. 

 

Thanks!

Gold Super Contributor
Jil
Posts: 3,150
Registered: ‎10-24-2011
0

Re: 2013 Bay Area Trend Predictions?

[ Edited ]

Ah, getting tired of seeing the same questions over every month!

Good Luck and good bless you:smileylol:

Silver Contributor
kinectimal
Posts: 442
Registered: ‎12-18-2011
0

Re: 2013 Bay Area Trend Predictions?

[ Edited ]

If you listen to Robert Shiller who is pretty bearish he says that housing prices will rise 3% for the next 4 years.

That's on a national level.  The Bay Area is a strong market so it could be higher.

I would guess on average more like 5-7% increases for the next 4 years.

 

I use 4 years  also because the FED is promising to keep interest rates low through 2015 maybe 2016 which they expect to be "well into the revovery"    After they start raising rates prices will soften again.  But there could be a delay of 2 years or so that would put us in 2018.

 

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000131858

 

Platinum Trusted Contributor
elt1
Posts: 5,059
Registered: ‎01-04-2010

Re: 2013 Bay Area Trend Predictions?

10% per year until 2017.... Nobody wants to sell unless they have to. Hardly any new houses being built...Condos are the best deal, but nobody wants to pay high HOA fees. Move up market may appear in 2014, at least in areas where there is sufficient equity built up. That will free up some starter home inventory, but prices will be 10-20% higher than now.....Of course if the world ends 12/21/12 all bets off....Oh and there is that fiscal cliff? By Jan 31 all that crap will be forgotten and the spring buying frenzy will back....

Platinum Super Contributor
buyinghouse
Posts: 5,879
Registered: ‎04-23-2011
0

Re: 2013 Bay Area Trend Predictions?

  I predict riots, people being dragged out of their homes to sign the release of their ownership on a property or being shot right there:smileyvery-happy:

 

  If anybody knew, say Jil, manch, fishsmarty or PT, (the investors) they wouldn't tell you the good news. :smileyvery-happy:

 

  We have just about a few weeks on this earth and then we all are going to die, why worry about housing?:smileyvery-happy:

 

  Being serious, you follow your heart and your pocket. Do like many, if you can afford to pay the mortgage, you have a decent job you can keep, you're paying more in rent than buying or equal and you won't suffer of buyers remorse after you become a homeowner, go ahead, buy now.

 

  So many times, logic hasn't played right in the RE market. But, never before real estate has taken so much interest/value, so many people having a good sentiment about buying than ever with so many well qualified buyers. Not being born nor raised in this country, I can't tell anything about this market from 2006 to before 2011 and swear to God this is the worse market for first time and well qualified buyers I have ever seen, but data shows it is.

 

  Unless major events happen, say Google, Apple, Microsoft and Facebook and all those companies hiring foreigners because of the incapacity of this country to supply good labor go crashing to the ground big time, I don't see the market slowing down nor prices going down as buyers expect for their own good.

 

  So, if you are asking if we have that magic crystal ball, no, we don't. And don't even ask abut timing the market. Many people here are going to tell you they heard the siren's magic singing and because of that, they fell in love and waited too long to buy or invest. Many of them too long as far as I am concerned!

 

  Good luck!

Gold Regular Contributor
sheriff
Posts: 2,360
Registered: ‎06-01-2012
0

Re: 2013 Bay Area Trend Predictions?

[ Edited ]

aatif786 wrote:

Hey Folks,

 

Anyone up to offer their opinion (backed by at least some data) on what kind of market we will see in the Bay Area in 2013?

 

I am particulary interested in knowing if trends like mutliple-offer listings will continue to be the new normal in 2013. There is sure to be an end to a frenzy like this, no?

 

I am asking this question becuase I want to know whether I will be priced out next year (I am ready to buy now and am looking for homes around 1500 sq. ft. in the Fremont/Hayward area under 600K. 

 

Thanks!


You might try Union City instead.  It has some nice neghborhoods and it fits your price range.  There are some nice homes on the southern edge near Mission Blvd.

Platinum Super Contributor
buyinghouse
Posts: 5,879
Registered: ‎04-23-2011
0

Re: 2013 Bay Area Trend Predictions?

  I just found a property in an apparent "pocket listing" right in my neighborhood! It"s not in Redfin, it's not in the MLS. A 3/2, 1,129 sq. ft. of living space and 3,484 sq. ft. Price? $389K. It's well painted and remodeled.

 

  I can't believe it! Right in my very nose they are selling a home and I never noticed it?

 

Gold Contributor
mediaguru
Posts: 1,901
Registered: ‎03-03-2011
0

Re: 2013 Bay Area Trend Predictions?

[ Edited ]

I don't agree with the bulls saying 3% growth per year or (laugh) 10% per year.  Not going to happen in areas like Fremont, or most of the Bay Area at this point. 

 

It's true a lot of places are seeing a recovery, but that's because they had dramatically corrected (or over corrected) when the bubble burst.  For example, I recently read an article listing Napa as one of the locations likely to see best home price / real estate growth in the next few years. Why? Because the prices fell 50% from the 2007 peak. 

 

That's not the case in much of the Bay Area, where prices only dropped about 20%, and are now HIGHER than at the bubble peak.

 

 

Based on some charts and graphs of trends I posted on here previously (I'd have to find them), I would predict that house prices will remain flat/stable (or possibly rise with inflation -- ie. no more than 3%) throughout 2013.  

 

However, by the end of 2013, they will plateau or even dip.

 

Let's see if I'm right.  But if it were me, I would hold off looking for a house in Bay Area and start looking in about November 2013.  I bet you'll be able to find something reasonable by Feb. 2014.

Silver Contributor
bld999
Posts: 473
Registered: ‎04-15-2011
0

Re: 2013 Bay Area Trend Predictions?

"find something reasonable"

 

What is "reasonable" in your estimation?

Gold Contributor
mediaguru
Posts: 1,901
Registered: ‎03-03-2011
0

Re: 2013 Bay Area Trend Predictions?

[ Edited ]

Reasonable by OP's requirements....

 

IMO, most Bay real estate has been unreasonable for a very long time. Some of it became reasonable over the past few years (which is why I bought a house -- at less than the price it sold for in 2001); much of it currently is not.

 

For me, reasonable meant no more than 3-4x household income.  The house we bought cost 3x our combined (dual) income.  Part of the reason for this requirement is because there's no telling when one of us could face hardship (like medical bills) or lose our jobs. And we are relatively young (early 30s), and healthy, and well educated, and gainfully employed. And I am even a unionized teacher with "tenure"

 

None of that provides true security in today's world, if you ask me.  I'm not going to make the same mistake others have made, over-extending and leveraging themselves all for a house, and when situation changes, they are left high and dry...