topic Re: A Tsunami of Positive Real Estate Market News in Orange County

An abundance of Positive Real Estate Market News

BobPhillips-RE — Thu, 05 Apr 2012 13:07:12 GMT

Here is a compilation of this past couple of week's positive real estate news from a plethora of credible sources:

Bloomberg: "Housing Lays Foundation for Rebound as Buyers Coaxed Back" ‐ this is a thorough article on all of the positive signs, happening NOW in real estate: CLICK HERE

Business Insider: "ROBERT SHILLER: This Might Be The 'End Game' For Falling Home Prices" - Robert Shiller of the CASE-SHILLER index seems to have changed his tune: CLICK HERE

CNBC: " Warren Buffett on CNBC: I'd Buy Up 'A Couple Hundred Thousand' Single-Family Homes If I Could" ‐ speaks for itself: CLICK HERE

CNBC: "Buffet Bullish On Housing" ‐ video analysis of the article above: CLICK HERE

Main Street: "Housing Affordability Is Soaring, But Don't Wait Too Long to Buy" ‐ it kind of speaks for itself: CLICK HERE

MSN Money: "Finally, time to buy a house?" ‐ another look at how housing is turning the corner: CLICK HERE

RisMedia: "Housing Affordability Index Hits Record High" ‐ with rates low and prices down, homes have not been this affordable in years: CLICK HERE

OC Register: Foreclosures are down to 2 year ago levels, all distressed is down to 2007 levels: CLICK HERE

OC Register: " Fewest O.C. homes for sale since 2005" ‐ low inventory is a real issue in today's market: CLICK HERE

Meanwhile, from the doom & gloom blogging community?

Re: A Tsunami of Positive Real Estate Market News

TrabucoDom — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 18:47:19 GMT

BobPhillips-RE wrote:

CNBC: " Warren Buffett on CNBC: I'd Buy Up 'A Couple Hundred Thousand' Single-Family Homes If I Could" ‐ speaks for itself: CLICK HERE

CNBC: "Buffet Bullish On Housing" ‐ video analysis of the article above: CLICK HERE

We've already established in earlier threads that Buffet has no credibility on housing....if you keep saying it is a good time to buy then someday you will be right.

Re: A Tsunami of Positive Real Estate Market News

Seneca — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 19:02:42 GMT

So why is this only "positive" news, Bob? The selection of houses for sale has never been lower, interest rates are bound to go up (they can hardly go down), and there is more competition than last year for the few good houses there are -- so prices aren't falling, and might even rise.

This is certainly all good news for sellers. But how do you see it as good news for buyers?

Re: A Tsunami of Positive Real Estate Market News

TrabucoDom — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 19:11:46 GMT

BobPhillips-RE wrote:

OC Register: Foreclosures are down to 2 year ago levels, all distressed is down to 2007 levels: CLICK HERE

OC Register: " Fewest O.C. homes for sale since 2005" ‐ low inventory is a real issue in today's market: CLICK HERE

I see that these 2 links are the only ones on the OC market...but they are just data, and not necessarily positive news...since inventory is so low in OC, then the agents have little to sell....without much of a product to sell then you can't really make make a living selling nothing ....

who cares if the low inventory temporarily pushes prices up 5%....zero sales is still zero commission even if you could have hypothetically sold someting for 5% more.....if I were an agent I'd rather have a healthy market where buyers are buying even if it means at a lower median price rather than be obsessed with having a rising median price of my product, but no worthy product to sell.

Re: A Tsunami of Positive Real Estate Market News

BobPhillips-RE — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 20:27:23 GMT

Seneca asked: "This is certainly all good news for sellers. But how do you see it as good news for buyers?"

How about the fact that they can FINALLY feel confidant about the likelihood that if they DO buy now, they're probably not going to lose equity?

That always worked for buyers before this past decade.

I see it as indications that the market has stabilized, which is better for EVERYONE. ( Or at least everyone who's not a doom & gloom blogger - who now might finally have to go out and get a REAL job.)

Re: A Tsunami of Positive Real Estate Market News

BobPhillips-RE — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 20:30:58 GMT

T.D. speculated: "since inventory is so low in OC, then the agents have little to sell....without much of a product to sell then you can't really make make a living selling nothing."

I can't speak for any other agents, but I personally am doing fine, in coming up with good choices for buyers I'm presently working with. We just have to be a little quicker to act, once we find something.

No need to worry about me, T.D., I'm doing just fine. Thanks for your concern, though.

Re: A Tsunami of Positive Real Estate Market News

LoansbyJW — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 22:08:16 GMT

Interesting title selection one day before the anniversary of the devastating earthquake, tsunami, and reactor meldowns last year.

We'll soon see if fewer homes for sale translate into stable to higher home values, or greater numbers of discouraged buyers who see no reason to purchase given the available homes on the market. $4.65 gasoline and stagnate wage growth will also be factors weighing on their decisions.

Low inventory can also be attributed to everyone refinancing into sub 4% rates. Why sell when you've got a shiny new low payment?

Thanks for reading,

Re: A Tsunami of Positive Real Estate Market News

Groundhog — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 01:56:10 GMT

Heya Bob,

YOUR COMPILATION OF POSITIVE PLETHORA IS FULL OF BUGS.......but thanks for the laugh anyway.

Groundhog opinion

OGR

Re: A Tsunami of Positive Real Estate Market News

truelie — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 05:56:06 GMT

The federal government recorded its worst monthly deficit in history in February, according to a preliminary report Wednesday from the Congressional Budget Office that said the deficit in fiscal year 2012 is already more than half a trillion dollars.

Re: A Tsunami of Positive Real Estate Market News

Seneca — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 06:07:36 GMT

How about the fact that they can FINALLY feel confidant about the likelihood that if they DO buy now, they're probably not going to lose equity?

First of all, Bob, I doubt that even you would speculate on what these factors mean for prices 7 or 8 years from now, and even you would not advise someone to buy a house unless he plans to stay in it 7 or 8 years. So whether or not equity is lost in the first 2-3 years (which is about all you could hope to predict from this data) is, or should be, a very minor concern of the present homebuyer. Didn't you yourself post a link just a little while ago to an article that said you should not avoid buying a house because the price might fall a little bit over the next year or two? Well, by the very same logic, you should not decide to buy a house just because the price might rise a little bit over the next year or two.

Second of all, the best possible guarantee of future equity is a lower price today. If I want to make a profit, I'm always better off buying when prices are falling than when they're rising. Prices that are falling absolutely must turn around someday. There is never a guarantee that rising prices will keep rising. Believing otherwise is exactly the mistake people who bought in 2006 -- when price were very high, but still rising -- made.

Face it, dude. You look at this entirely through the eyes of the seller. You can't wiggle out of it by the pretty weak argument that today's buyer is -- someday! possibly when the first grandkid is born! -- tomorrow's seller. That's like arguing that falling wages are really good for employees, because by gum, if the business really prospers and they own stock, someday they might become business owners -- and then they'll be glad of low wage costs.

Re: A Tsunami of Positive Real Estate Market News

truelie — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 06:16:51 GMT

Another Positive Real Estate Market News

O.C. home prices drop 5.5% March 10th, 2012, 7:27 am · · posted by Jon Lansner

Re: A Tsunami of Positive Real Estate Market News

BobPhillips-RE — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 07:45:45 GMT

Nice try, Truelie, but those numbers are old news, as DataQuick is reporting recently closed escrows that actually opened during the slowest real estate selling time of the year - before February 1st - reflecting slow activity during the Holidays.

Re: A Tsunami of Positive Real Estate Market News

BobPhillips-RE — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 07:55:21 GMT

# points from Seneca: "1.) the best possible guarantee of future equity is a lower price today. If I want to make a profit, I'm always better off buying when prices are falling than when they're rising.

2.) Prices that are falling absolutely must turn around someday.

3.) There is never a guarantee that rising prices will keep rising.

Response to #1.) Prices today are ALREADY 30-40% lower than they were at the peak.

Response to #2.) WITH prices now being 30-40% lower, it would seem that now is an appropriate moment in time, to anticipate a change in momentum.

Response to #3) There is - likewise - no guarantee - dare I even say, likelihood - that falling prices will continue to fall.

Re: A Tsunami of Positive Real Estate Market News

TrabucoDom — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 15:41:57 GMT

BobPhillips-RE wrote:
Nice try, Truelie, but those numbers are old news, as DataQuick is reporting recently closed escrows that actually opened during the slowest real estate selling time of the year - before February 1st - reflecting slow activity during the Holidays.

Old news? Newer data has not yet been released....This is only early March so it is not realistic to have closed data for March yet. The posters link used data for 3 weeks in February (http://lansner.ocregister.com/2012/03/10/o-c-home-prices-drop-5-5/159642/) ... does it need to be real-time data for it to be accurate for you? I guess we can only use data from today to be acceptable for you, bob?

So Bob, the question for you is:

Do you have accuarate data for the homes sold and closed after February 1st in Orange County?

Re: A Tsunami of Positive Real Estate Market News

BobPhillips-RE — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 17:53:36 GMT

"Do you have accurate data for the homes sold and closed after February 1st in Orange County?"

Again, the DataQuick numbers, just released, represent MOSTLY houses that went INTO escrow back in November and December - even the 1st 2 weeks of January - ALL part of the slowest - and most negotiable - time of the Orange County real estate selling season.

There are plenty of sources - including THIS same source - the O.C. Register - who have been reporting the PENDING sales - houses going INTO escrow - most of which will just now be starting to close.

http://lansner.ocregister.com/2012/03/10/where-in-o-c-is-homebuying-doubling/159640/

http://lansner.ocregister.com/2012/03/11/high-gas-prices-wont-derail-housing-market/159653/

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/mesa-344041-costa-fountain.html

The ONLY reason Bears continue to high five themselves over the closed escrow figures, is because those are the FINAL vestiges of local real estate negativity.

Re: A Tsunami of Positive Real Estate Market News

TrabucoDom — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 18:48:26 GMT

BobPhillips-RE wrote:

There are plenty of sources - including THIS same source - the O.C. Register - who have been reporting the PENDING sales - houses going INTO escrow - most of which will just now be starting to close.

We have already established numerous times in other threads that pending sales are a very unreliable indicator of actual sales since nowhere near 100% of pending sales become actual sales.

Pending sales can be pending for 2 or 3 months (or even more due to foot-dragging in short-sales and REOs so they are counted as a pending sale over and over, month after month)

...then many fall out of escrow becase of funding problems or the buyer backs out

I'll take the accuracy of closed sales over the unreliable pending data because I am not desperate to see unrealistically over-inflated stats.

Re: A Tsunami of Positive Real Estate Market News

Groundhog — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 19:15:20 GMT

Heya TD,

MORE POSITIVE REAL ESTATE MARKET NEWS

Hot off the press today from The Fishwrap Edition, Sunday OC Register (got that from JW, fishwrap, haha!).

HEADLINE..........Unprecedented exodus of sellers from market (page three Real Estate section, J. Lansner).

WHAT IS THE MEANING OF THIS, HUH????

I think this is indeed a tsunami of positive Real Estate news.......... for OC Buyers-in-Waiting.

It signals weakness in the Sellers high price expectations. It signals they now "sort of capitulate", knowing it is not going to happen at current prices. The majority of would be Sellers are obviously waiting, hoping for a pie in the sky turn around that just ain't gonna happen.

If Sellers did eventually capitulate en masse, it would be good for the overall market as well. Both Sellers and Buyers alike.

For after all, if prices in OC became greatly lowered due to massive Seller price capitulation, would not a wider range of buyers gain access to the market? Of course! There would be lots more sales, indeed, a mini boom could even occur.

The whole economy would be stimulated to new heights of success. O' such a miracle to dream of.......Alas, groundhogs will probably sprout feathered wings and fly before that happens .

The unfortunate fly in the ointment is that such a process may be 10 or 20 more years in the making. Or mayhap this moribund OC RE market is permanently crippled, for at least the lifetime of anyone here now.

Unbridled Greed knows no reason and serves no good purpose (I said that..........GH).

I am not holding my breath for a sudden change in how the housing business now works. Now that homes have become only another commodity in a sea of commodity trading, a veritable Ponzi scheme supported by an outlandish fiat economic system of lifelong indebtedness.

Good luck, y'all..............

Groundhog opinion

OGR

Re: A Tsunami of Positive Real Estate Market News

TrabucoDom — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 19:25:38 GMT

Groundhog wrote:
Heya TD,

MORE POSITIVE REAL ESTATE MARKET NEWS

Hot off the press today from The Fishwrap Edition, Sunday OC Register (got that from JW, fishwrap, haha!).

HEADLINE..........Unprecedented exodus of sellers from market (page three Real Estate section, J. Lansner).

I just read that piece this morning too...it looks like the buyer-seller standoff is coming to a head this year....

I think sellers will capitualate because buyers do not need to buy....they can continue renting until there is decent product at a decent price...but there will be some sellers that must sell and that number will build if they delay selling...

if someone is relocating out of OC and would like to sell, then they could delay by renting out for awhile but they are an unwilling landlord who will probably sell at the first complications in the business..if there is a divorce , death, job loss, or other personal situation that forces a home sale, it probably won't be delayed very long...

When will the average potential organic seller accepts that home prices will not be rebounding to bubble levels and decide to accept current market prices as the new normal?

Re: A Tsunami of Positive Real Estate Market News

BobPhillips-RE — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 23:26:30 GMT

T.D. stated: "We have already established numerous times in other threads that pending sales are a very unreliable indicator of actual sales since nowhere near 100% of pending sales become actual sales."

That has NOT been established. Only promoted by various bears, on the forum.

He also stated: "Pending sales can be pending for 2 or 3 months (or even more due to foot-dragging in short-sales and REOs so they are counted as a pending sale over and over, month after month)"

They are NOT recounted, unless they've fallen out of escrow, reappeared on the active market, and gone into escrow again.

And, finally, he stated: "...then many fall out of escrow becase of funding problems or the buyer backs out"

Funding problems? Perhaps, rarely. Buyers backing out? Yes, frequently, but mostly on short sales, where their offer was way below market ( And therefore not really a viable escrow.) to which the lender responds with a counter offer close to MARKET VALUE. ( Which means recent sales.)

Last, he stated: "I'll take the accuracy of closed sales over the unreliable pending data because I am not desperate to see unrealistically over-inflated stats."

Here's the flaw in your thinking. Pending sales numbers have ALWAYS been part of the equation. Whoever is compiling the figures probably has - equally - always known the potential average fall-out rate, which is probably quite consistent, so they're also taken into consideration.

It doesn't matter, when the figures are announced, as long as those figures remain consistent. As such, armed with the complete set of statistics, the final numbers will not be over-inflated - they'll be part of the equation.

So, comparing THIS year's pending figures, being higher than those of any particular previous year, is STILL meaningful, and totally relevant.

Re: A Tsunami of Positive Real Estate Market News

TrabucoDom — Tue, 13 Mar 2012 11:58:50 GMT

I guess you already forgot about this thread from RE Guy:

http://forums.redfin.com/t5/Orange-County/Trendgraphix-Data/td-p/300993

Trendgraphix Data

03-08-2012 02:20 PM

Trendgraphix just released their data today

In February, 2012 homes for sale in the OC have been the lowest they have been in the last 15 months at 7,247 and pending sales have never been higher 3,765. Closed sales posted the 2nd worst performance in February 2012 at 1,880. The worst performance was January, 2012 at 1,740.

______________________________________________________________________________________________

It is already showing that closed sales in Jan and Feb 2012 are the 1st and 2nd worst performances...and that is despite pending sales never having been higher ....