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Re: Why I Am Not Buying (Part 2)
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benectar
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Registered: 04-18-2009


benectar

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I think many of you probably read this already:

 

Mortgage defaults hit record in state, Bay Area 

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/04/23/MNKP1777R4.DTL&type=realestate

 

Such notices typically precede foreclosures by a few months. The huge rise in defaults means that scores of bargain-priced bank-owned properties could inundate the struggling real estate market during the key spring and summer selling season. 

1
Kudos!
04-24-2009 09:27 PM
 

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Re: Why I Am Not Buying (Part 2)
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Arnold_Layne
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Arnold_Layne

Message 12 of 149

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Agreed. Be sure to Google 'Field Check Group' so you can read Mark's blog, it's one of the best.

Glad to see him getting some coverage.

Kudos!
04-24-2009 10:21 PM
 

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Re: Why I Am Not Buying (Part 2)
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Andrei_K
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Registered: 03-29-2009


Andrei_K

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Arnold,

 

You (and many others) are fundamentally WRONG in stating that "if you find what you want at your price, why not buy it" [because] "it is not an investment."

 

First off, since the real estate had already been a subject to the wildspread speculation for almost a decade, it is no longer your choice to buy a house without considering its value as an investment. This decision has already been made for you. The prices for many houses in many Bay Area counties can still be grossly overpriced due to enourmous size of the bubble, you might end up in the situation when your house can lose a significant part of its market value in the coming years. 

 

You say "if my purchase, this year, is not under water for 10 years, I will be happy." I can hardly believe anyone would sincerely say that before making one of the largest investments in one's life.

 

This implies that if your house remained underwater for any shorter period, you would be even happier, right? Well, I see people all around me being underwater for only a couple of years and, man, their faces ain't look happy at all. Why put yourself in such a risky situation? What if you lose a job during this time when you are underwater? All things equal, the chances are growing that you might (i mean unemployment in BA is projected to go through the roof during the next 6-9 months).  

 

To put it differently, wouldn't you feel much happier if you waited for a little longer (maybe a year or two) and then bought a bigger and better house that would not go underwater at all?? Did you calclulate how many months of your hard work you might hand over to the lender by buying a house that can end up staying underwater for 5 years from now? Just think about it.

 

AGAIN, let me repeat, if you became an unwilling part of the huge speculation bubble, you must play by the rules of that bubble! This means, if you are still within the bubble, stay ahead of the market prices by at least 10-20%, whether you are buying or selling. You as a buyer simply don't have this option anymore of sticking your head into the sand and pretending you are buying a good value if the bubble is still bursting. Or you might be swept away by this bubble even if you end up being only a half-way victim of it.

 

Of course, no guarantees in life. But being savvy in your largest investments makes it kind of more happy, doesn't it?    

3
Kudos!
04-26-2009 12:50 AM
 

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Re: Why I Am Not Buying (Part 2)
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El_Katz
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El_Katz

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I don't know the level of experience any of you have as home buyers, but I will share mine - of 35 years and 8 homes.  I am not a realtor nor am I affiliated in any way with the real estate industry.  I've moved due to job transfers. 

 

What has been lost on a generation of people is that a house is a place to live - not an "investment".  For decades, the growth in real value was from inflation and supply and demand.  The advantage of buyinig was primarily from the tax savings and ability to (eventually) pay off a property and live there mortgage free.   At that point, your "rent" was fixed, but for property taxes.  Without a monthly payment, you could build additional wealth in the form of savings and investments - or simply improve your quality of life.  

 

At some point, this whole "buy real estate and get rich" scheme took over.  "Flip that House".... etc., became the mantra for a whole generation of real estate "investors" that were getting set up to get sheared.  Keep in mind that, by the time "everyone is doing it", the smart money has left town.  The majority of the current "bubble" was created by greed, avarice, and the creation of artificial wealth by unbridled growth in credit.  It wasn't "real estate investing", it was speculation fueled by cheap credit, low underwriting criteria, and stupid people.  Yes, I said it.  Stupid people who - like the Dutch tupip mania in the 1600's - bid up values on margin, then lost their shirts.  It was very predictable.

 

Here's some advice: 

 

1.  Buy a house that you can see yourself living in for your entire life.  Most Americans move every 7 years, but times are changing.  You may move in two years, or never.   

 

2.  If it has an incurable defect (traffic noise, etc.,), it's not a bargain at any price.  

 

3.  Buy a house to live in, not as an investment.  If you want to consider it an investment, realize that investments are, by definition, "at risk capital".  

 

4.  You don't lose a dime on anything you own until you sell it.  Conversely, you don't make a dime on anything until you sell it.  Worrying about your "investment" losing value is going to do nothing more than give you ulcers.  If you spend your "profits" before you sell it, you may find yourself upside down - and homeless.  Those profits are elusive and can best be compared to "fools gold".

 

5.  Don't get emotional about a home.  It's nothing more than a pile of bricks and sticks.  If you get emotional over a home purchase, you'll likely make a mistake.  Buy only what you can afford today.   In this current economy, your income may (at best) stagnate for a few years.  Assuming you'll get that raise you've received every year for the past 10 years is foolish.

 

6.  The best time to buy is in a market such as this.  I've purchased almost every house in a down market... and told was told that "I paid too much" by all the arm chair experts.  The truth is that I came out at the end (at worse) with all my money, plus enjoying my "bank rental".  There is a sense of security and personal satisfaction in owning a house.  I've owned two of them outright... because I've never been a payment buyer.  Interest rates change - what you paid for it does not.  The tax deductions reduce your actual "rent" to the bank, where the rent paid to your landlord does not.  In fact, you may even get a rebate of your "rent" in the form of equity when you decide to sell.  

 

7.  Buy a house with good bones.  Cosmetics are an easy fix.  Landscaping is easy as well.  Broken foundations are not.  If it's a price that's "too good to be true", it probably is.  Location, school district, community reputation, tax base, location in the tract.... are key.  No amount of stainless steel appliances and granite countertops will overcome a poor location.  

 

8.  Consider the down payment money as a loan from you.... to you.  Pay yourself back on a schedule as well.  It can be done.  Easy?  No.  You may eat more ramen than filet, but you'll come out ahead.

 

9.  Don't buy someone elses flip/remodel.  They likely used crap materials and hid defects behind the new drywall and pretty tile.  You're infatuated by the decorating, not the property.  Whatever you do, don't get into a bidding war.  It's only worth, to you, what you're willing to pay for it.  Anyone who lists a house under market, in an attempt to incite a bidding war, is unethical.  I wouldn't buy the house, even if I loved it.  Why?  Because it's not a rational decision..... it's an emotional one.  The seller (and the broker) know that.... which is why they did it to begin with.  Like being manipulated?  Then keep on being a sucker for this type of behavior.  

 

10.  If you need some exotic mortgage product to afford the house, don't buy it.  You truly can't afford it.  Option ARM's, negative amortization, interest only.... forget it.  It sounds good on paper until you're deep into it and you find out what that fine print really means in the real world.

 

11.  Trying to time the bottom of any market is a fool's play.  If you buy too soon, you'll think you "paid too much".  If you buy too late, you'll think you "paid too much" and "if only...." will be your cry.  Get over it.  Odds are, you aren't that smart.  If you were, you'd have timed every other market and wouldn't be worried about a few grand because you'd be so loaded it wouldn't matter. 

 

I read the one post from the guy who says "you're going to lose your shirt" in his response to the other poster that said he was okay with being underwater for a few years.  If you were to listen to the doomsayer, you'd never buy anything.  A new car loses 10-15% of it's value when it goes over the curb.  So does a used car.  Don't own a car?  Your bike is worth 25% of what you paid for it.  The dinner you ate last night is worth zero.  So is that movie you watched at the theatre.  Your new shoes have zero value after you wear them outside just once.  Your iPhone, laptop, etc., are worth only what someone is willing to give you for it.  Same with stocks, bonds, tulips, or... houses. 

 

If you were to follow his advice, you'd be naked living under a bridge in a box.... 

 

Do what works for you.  Just don't be stupid about it.  There's plenty of information to guide you in making a sound decision.  Use your head, do your homework, have some patience, and you'll be fine.  

 

Do you think realtors and mortgage brokers are "thieves"?  Trust, but verify.  It's easy.  It just requires thought and patience - and the guidance of someone who has gone through the "dance".  If a realtor or mortgage company misleads you, call them out on it and walk.  There are others out there that are ethical.  I usually go through three or four agents before I find one that I trust.  Listen to what they say.... there are some things that they, legally, cannot say.... but will still communicate with you if you learn to ask the right questions.  They can't say it, but they can respond to your question if you bring it up.   I never use a mortgage broker.  I've always dealt with the bank directly.  We refi'd with them 2 months ago.... at a lower rate, locked for 30 years, with no points or fees.  I can do that every 2 months if I so choose.   

 

The truth is.... we're on a trajectory to go back to the economic behavior of the 50's and 60's.  It will be refreshing.  It will slow down the volatility until a generation of people get past the pain of this meltdown.  As memories fade, history repeats itself. 

 

 

 

 

28
Kudos!
04-26-2009 12:18 PM
 

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Re: Why I Am Not Buying (Part 2)
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snappypants
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Posts: 70
Registered: 04-07-2009


snappypants

Message 15 of 149

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Well said!!!!!! and thanks for a bit of reason during this crazy time.

 

Kudos!
04-26-2009 12:36 PM
 

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Re: Why I Am Not Buying (Part 2)   [ Edited ]
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Andrei_K
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Andrei_K

Message 16 of 149

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El-Katz,

 

This is really good. Thank you.

 

A

Message Edited by Andrei_K on 04-27-2009 09:50 AM
Kudos!
04-27-2009 09:49 AM
 

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Re: Why I Am Not Buying (Part 2)
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maka-san
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Registered: 04-09-2009


maka-san

Message 17 of 149

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El-Katz, thank you so much for the great advise.

 

All of them sound so right! It's about time we return back to fundamentals and let history guide its course. 

Kudos!
04-27-2009 11:56 PM
 

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Re: Why I Am Not Buying (Part 2)
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Albert_L
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Registered: 04-14-2009


Albert_L

Message 18 of 149

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Can you tell me which place is very useful for me to invest money?

Kudos!
04-28-2009 01:19 AM

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Re: Why I Am Not Buying (Part 2)   [ Edited ]
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mr_handy
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mr_handy

Message 19 of 149

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Albert_L wrote:

Can you tell me which place is very useful for me to invest money?


 

I wouldn't touch real estate with a 10-meter cattle prod as an investor right now; paying for someplace to live is a very different thing than investing money that's not needed for housing. 

 

My advice: stick with treasuries, particularly TIPS, unless your risk tolerance is very high.  If you risk tolerance is high, plenty of other good places besides real estate which probably has a way to go down still and probably will be flat for a long time after that unless inflation kicks off hard.

Message Edited by mr_handy on 04-28-2009 08:25 AM
Kudos!
04-28-2009 08:24 AM
 

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Re: Why I Am Not Buying (Part 2)
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sjBoots
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Registered: 04-23-2009


sjBoots

Message 20 of 149

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@ El_Katz: Thanks for the insightful post. It's great to have it written down to refer back to.

 

I've heard many of these things from my friends, particularly that I'm buying a place to live. Even my realtor pointed out the long-term annoyance of living at the intersection of two busy streets with a four-way stop. Right price, wrong property.

Kudos!
04-28-2009 08:49 AM
 

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